Like a creature from a hydrologic horror flick, Devils Lake, North Dakota, has been expanding off and on for 70 years, most dramatically from the mid-1990s onward. Some of its tendrils have blocked rail lines and roadways for years.
The less-than-predicted amount of oil reaching coastlines after the Deepwater Horizon spill illuminates the difference between a projection and an actual forecast and
the challenges of making short-term projections of natural processes that can act chaotically.
In December 2010, media dutifully reported the heavy snow that battered the northeast U.S. and the United Kingdom’s coldest December in at least 100 years. Meanwhile, the sparsely populated Canadian Arctic basked in near-unprecedented mildness.
Strong jet streams often plow into the West Coast in wintertime, but the heaviest rains and snows occur when the flow dips far south over the Pacific, allowing it to bring an atmospheric river of warm, moist air from the subtropics to California.
Issuing a five-day weather forecast was once a daring enterprise. Today, we’re not only accustomed to long-range weather forecasts but also to seasonal-scale outlooks. Hurricanes and sea ice show how far we've come.
The wildfire that erupted in the foothills west of Boulder in September 2010 sent a thick plume of smoke right over NCAR’s chemistry labs. Even as their offices smelled of smoke, scientists took measurements from the roof.
Seco, R, T Karl, A Guenther, …, 2015: Ecosystem-scale volatile organic compound fluxes during an extreme drought in a broadleaf temperate forest of the Missouri Ozarks (central USA). Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.12980 | OpenSky
Miller, L, N Brunsell, D Mechem, …, 2015: Two methods for estimating limits to large-scale wind power generation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 10.1073/pnas.1408251112 | OpenSky
Zhao, S, X Tie, J Cao, …, 2015: Impacts of mountains on black carbon aerosol under different synoptic meteorology conditions in the Guanzhong region, China. Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.05.016 | OpenSky