Staff Notes Daily Calendar Events

Wednesday, February 21, 2018 - 7:00pm

Have you ever been curious what it is like to work in Antarctica where temperatures can drop below -50F and wind speeds can exceed hurricane force? Snow accumulation is the primary precipitation method that sustains the Antarctic ice sheets. Yet, snowfall remains one of the most difficult meteorological variables to accurately measure, especially in windy conditions. A new field program funded by the National Science Foundation is focused on testing recent advances in technology to determine if accurate snowfall measurements are now possible in the Antarctic environment. Join NCAR Scientist Scott Landolt as he provides an overview of this field program, the challenges of working in Antarctica, day-to-day life around McMurdo Station, and stunning photography of the Antarctic ice sheets.

To atttend this free public talk, you will need a ticket. Please see the website below for more information about the talk and for a link to EventBrite where you can reserve your ticket.

NCAR Explorer Series - Scott Landolt

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Main Seminar Room

Posted by Scott Briggs (sbriggs@ucar.edu) at x1607
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR Education & Outreach
Will this event be webcast?
Yes - ML-Main Seminar Room - http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live
Saturday, February 24, 2018 - 2:00pm

Have you ever been curious what it is like to work in Antarctica where temperatures can drop below -50F and wind speeds can exceed hurricane force? Snow accumulation is the primary precipitation method that sustains the Antarctic ice sheets. Yet, snowfall remains one of the most difficult meteorological variables to accurately measure, especially in windy conditions. A new field program funded by the National Science Foundation is focused on testing recent advances in technology to determine if accurate snowfall measurements are now possible in the Antarctic environment. Join NCAR Scientist Scott Landolt as he provides an overview of this field program, the challenges of working in Antarctica, day-to-day life around McMurdo Station, and stunning photography of the Antarctic ice sheets.

To atttend this free public talk, you will need a ticket. Please see the website below for more information about the talk and for a link to EventBrite where you can reserve your ticket.

NCAR Explorer Series - Scott Landolt

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Main Seminar Room

Posted by Scott Briggs (sbriggs@ucar.edu) at x1607
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR Education & Outreach
Will this event be webcast?
Yes - ML-Main Seminar Room - http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live
Wednesday, February 28, 2018 - 10:00am

CISL Seminar Series
 To Petabytes...and Beyond!
Data Managment with CESM
Gary Strand
NCAR, CGD

The Community Earth System Model (CESM) is a state-of-the-art climate model and is NCAR’s flagship climate model. It is used to simulate the Earth’s climate system, from the distant past into the future, and to investigate the processes underlying the climate system. Simulations done with CESM, depending on the specific model configuration, can replicate time periods from as short as few days to tens of thousands of years.

In the last few years, the use of large ensembles of CESM simulations has become more common, in which the identical model configuration is run from dozens to thousands of times. As a result, large volumes of model data are generated, from tens of terabytes to over a petabyte from a single project. The management and analysis of the output from these petascale projects can be a daunting task.

The talk will go over the past, present and future of the data engineering and management of CESM data. I'll focus on the tools that I use to handle the scale and complexity of these data, and their application to some recent CESM petascale projects, such as the LENS, LME, DPLE, and GLENS. The upcoming set of simulations for CMIP6 and the future directions of large-scale data engineering and management within CESM will also be discussed. I'll also talk about my views regarding best practices in CESM data management, and the policies that guide and influence CESM data management, in the present and in the future.

Biography
Gary Strand is a software engineer in the Climate Change Prediction group of the Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory (CGD) of NCAR. He began work at NCAR as a student assistant, and has been involved in several generations of climate model development in CGD. He is the primary data manager and data scientist for the NCAR climate model, the Community Earth System Model (CESM). He has led major data management activities and projects for the CESM since 2003, including CMIP3, CMIP5 and other large-scale CESM projects.

Wednesday, February 28, 2018
10:00 a.m. - 11:00 a.m.
Mesa Lab, Main Seminar Room

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Main Seminar Room

Posted by Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) at x2431
Hosting lab/division or program:
CISL
Will this event be webcast?
Yes - ML-Main Seminar Room - http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live
Thursday, March 29, 2018 - 6:00pm

Join us for the next event in our DBAMS Book Club series on Thursday, March 29.

We will discuss meteorologist and journalist Bob Henson's book, "The Thinking Person's Guide to Climate Change" (if you don't already have it, this book can be purchased from AMS here). 

Bob will provide an overview of updates he's currently working on for the book, and we'll find out how the landscape has evolved over the last four years, including:

  • The blazing global temperatures of the mid-2010s: just a blip, or a sign of more sustained heating to come?
  • The growth of "hot droughts" and how they're transforming the climate of California
  • The catastrophic Atlantic hurricane season of 2017 and the weather and climate factors that played into it
  • The creation of the Paris Agreement to limit greenhouse emissions—and why the U.S. wants to leave it.

Bob is co-author of the Category 6 website at Weather Underground and a former science writer at UCAR/NCAR.

Get involved with this lively discussion with the author!

6:00 PM – Arrive, social, light refreshments served
6:30 PM – Presentation and Book Discussion
8:00 PM – Meeting Adjourns

Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Main Seminar Room

Posted by Emily Laidlaw (laidlaw@ucar.edu) at x1707
Will this event be webcast?
No
Tuesday, February 27, 2018 - 3:30pm

Oceanography among the clouds and terrestrial ecology a thousand miles from land: The power  of global-scale airborne observations 
Britton Stephens
National Center for Atmospheric Research

The total amounts of biological productivity in a given yearin the world’s oceans and on land are fundamental properties of Earth system health that are poorly constrained by satellite and surface measurements. Likewise, our understanding of the distribution of anthropogenic carbon sinks among the Southern Ocean, tropical forests, and northern hemisphere temperate and boreal ecosystems—an important diagnostic of future carbon-climate feedbacks—is limited by sparse observations and uncertainties in atmospheric transport. Over the past decade, measurements of atmospheric CO2, O2, and related tracers on global-scale airborne research campaigns have enabled new insights into these carbon cycle questions. By measuring gradients and integrated signals from the surface to the lower stratosphere, nearly pole to pole, and in all seasons, we can overcome the data sparseness and transport limitations, because airborne measurements are representative of large zonal scales and column means less sensitive to model vertical mixing biases. The HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO, 2009-2011), O2/N2 Ratio and Airborne Southern Ocean (ORCAS, 2016), and Atmospheric Tomography (ATom, 2016-2018) campaigns are enabling new estimates of 1) the growing season net flux (GSNF) of CO2 with the Northern Hemisphere land biome, 2) the partitioning between northern extratropical and tropical forest carbon sinks, 3) the seasonal net outgassing (SNO) of O2 by the ocean in both hemispheres, and 4) the Southern Ocean CO2 sink. These estimates show that GSNF has increased by > 50% over the past 60 years, that intact tropical forests are a major sink for anthropogenic carbon, that SNO is surprisingly balanced between the hemispheres, and that the seasonal variability in Southern Ocean CO2 exchange is much greater than previously thought. I will present these results and discuss new opportunities for making global-scale aircraft observations a more routine part of the future climate observing system.  

Tuesday, 27 February 2018, 3:30 PM
Refreshments 3:15 PM
NCAR-Foothills Laboratory  3450 Mitchell Lane
Bldg 2 Large Auditorium (Rm1022)

Building:
FL2
Room:
1022

Posted by Erin Fundalinski (erinf@gmail.com) at x8713
Hosting lab/division or program:
EOL
Will this event be webcast?
Tuesday, February 20, 2018 - 3:30pm

Estimating observation and model error variances using multiple data sets
Dr. Richard Anthes
UCAR President Emeritus

In this paper we show how multiple data sets, including observations and models, can be combined using the “N-cornered hat method” to estimate vertical profiles of the errors of each system. Using data from 2007, we estimate the error variances of radio occultation, radiosondes, ERA-Interim and GFS model data sets at four radiosonde locations in the tropics and subtropics. A key assumption is the neglect of error covariances among the different data sets, and we examine the consequences of this assumption on the resulting error estimates.

 
Tuesday, 20 February 2018, 3:30 PM
Refreshments 3:15 PM
NCAR-Foothills Laboratory  3450 Mitchell Lane
Bldg 2 Large Auditorium (Rm1022)
Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1022

Posted by Erin Fundalinski (erinf@ucar.edu) at x8713
Hosting lab/division or program:
EOL
Will this event be webcast?
Saturday, February 24, 2018 - 10:00am

Do you know a middle school girl? Do you know a middle school science teacher?

Please help spread the word about a fun event specifically for middle school girls!

On 24 February the 23nd annual "Expanding Your Horizons" conference for girls in the 6th, 7th, and 8th grades  will take place.

Learn about careers involving engineering, math, science and technology through a day of hands-on workshops, and meet professional women. Find out what it’s like to be a crime scene investigator, build satellites, work on the ISS, disassemble hard drives, study the sun from far away, examine colorful fluids and much much more.

Where: At the University of Colorado, Boulder Engineering Center

When: Saturday, February 25, 2017      from   10 am to 2:30 pm

Parallel adult program is available on strategies for supporting girls’ academic success and paying for college

Registration now open:   https://boulder-co.aauw.net/expanding-your-horizons/

For questions please contact Astrid Maute

Type of event:
No event type category

Posted by Astrid Maute (maute@ucar.edu) at x1539
Will this event be webcast?
No
Wednesday, February 21, 2018 - 2:00pm

GNSS as a Global Observing System for Ionospheric Study

Techniques based on the transionospheric radio waves propagation, in particular Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS), has been effectively used during several decades for ionospheric climatology research as well as for monitoring and study of main parameters of ionospheric plasma disturbances. The number of the ground-based receivers within the global and regional GNSS networks grew significantly from several hundred worldwide in the 1990s to more than 6000 stations today. Many of operated Low-Earth-Orbit satellites are also equipped with dual-frequency GNSS receivers and gives possibilities to estimate topside ionosphere plasma density and detect the ionospheric irregularities signatures at high altitudes. Ground-based GNSS networks and LEO GPS provide continuous measurements of navigation signals parameters, that allows to consider these facilities as a global observatory for permanent monitoring of ionospheric plasma density spatial distribution and its dynamics. We present results demonstrating advantages of using dense ground-based GNSS networks and LEO GPS observations for investigation of ionospheric responses on Space Weather drivers and focus on representative case studies during the 2015 severe geomagnetic storms. In this report, we investigate signatures of the large-scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs) recognized in the ground-based total electron content (TEC) and storm-induced ionospheric plasma density irregularities caused by auroral particles precipitations and plasma gradients associated with SED/TOI (storm-enhanced density / tongue of ionization) formation. Also, we present recent results of GNSS TEC analysis of the ionosphere’s response to the 21 August 2017 solar eclipse.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
CG1
Room:
2126

Posted by Sheryl Shapiro (sheryls@ucar.edu) at x1567
Hosting lab/division or program:
HAO
Will this event be webcast?
Thursday, February 22, 2018 - 1:00pm

High Resolution ensemble Background Error Covariances for 4D Ensemble-Variational Data Assimilation

Joel Bédard, Environnement and Climate Change Canada

Higher model resolution model implies a higher number of degrees of freedom and a need for dense observation networks (e.g. satellite, radar and surface observations) to constrain the model initial state. Like in many other NWP centers, only a small fraction of the available observations is being used in ECCC operational systems. The horizontal thinning for all assimilated radiances is 150 km; radar observations are not yet assimilated operationally; and the screen level wind observations are not yet operationally assimilated over land. Although data assimilation for convective scale NWP has been the object of intense research lately, the resolution and the quality of background error covariances remain factors limiting the assimilation of dense observations. 

The data assimilation component for a new short-term convective-scale numerical weather prediction (NWP) system covering most of Canada at2.5 km resolution is currently being developed. It is based on a fully cycling deterministic 4DEnVar scheme with analysis increments initially computed at 10 km resolution. Several practical approaches have been evaluated and compared for generating ensembles of short-term forecasts for specifying the required background-error covariances. This includes ensembles from an EnKF and also from much simpler approaches. The new system is evaluated and compared with using Environment and Climate Change Canada's currently operational regional data assimilation system (with increments computed at 50 km resolution) for initializing forecasts from the identically configured atmospheric model.

Thursday, February 22, 2018
1:00-2:00
FL2-1001

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Jessa Johnson (jessaj@ucar.edu) at x2751
Hosting lab/division or program:
DTC
Will this event be webcast?
Tuesday, February 20, 2018 - 1:30pm

Improving Medium-Range Predictions of the Locally Extreme Precipitation with Machine Learning

The random forest (RF) algorithm and logistic regression (LR) are implemented to develop skillful, calibrated contiguous United States (CONUS)-wide probabilistic forecasts of locally extreme precipitation, as quantified by 1- and 10-year average recurrence interval (ARI) exceedances. Models are created for two different 24-hour periods representing lead times of 36-60 hours and 60-84 hours. CONUS is partitioned into eight regions which exhibit similar hydrometeorological properties. Within each of these regions, a model is trained to produce probabilistic exceedances forecasts on a ~0.5°grid, based on historical forecasts spanning an 11-year 2003-2013 period. Predictor data used to generate forecast probabilities come from simulated atmospheric fields taken from a record of NOAA’s 11-member Second Generation Global Ensemble Forecast System Reforecast (GEFS/R), and includes not only the quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) output from the model, but also variables that characterize the meteorological regime, including winds, moisture, and instability; spatiotemporal variability of fields is also considered. Results from a variety of sensitivity experiments are presented, and the use of these models to explore the physics of the forecast problem and objectively quantify the statistical biases of the GEFS/R is explored. These models are being developed for operational implementation at the Weather Prediction Center to assist forecasters with Excessive Rainfall Outlook generation. In association with that effort, forecasts from this model were evaluated during their 2017 Flash Flood and Intense Rainfall Experiment. Subjective forecaster evaluations are presented alongside objective verification during this period as well as an extended 4-year period beginning in September 2013. Overall, it is found that the machine learning-based forecasts add significant (>1 day lead time) skill over forecasts produced from the raw QPFs of both the GEFS/R and ECMWF ensemble across almost all regions of CONUS. The seminar will conclude with discussion of how well the methodology extrapolates to other datasets and predictands.

Speaker Bio
Greg Herman is currently a Ph.D. candidate in atmospheric science at Colorado State University, advised by Dr. Russ Schumacher. Greg graduated from the University of Washington with a B.S. in atmospheric science, computer science, and physics, and defended his M.S. research at CSU in autumn 2015.  His research primarily concerns the application of machine learning towards the improvement of probabilistic high-impact weather forecasts at short-to-medium range timescales, with particular emphasis on extreme precipitation forecasting. In particular, Greg has developed machine learning-based real-time forecast products for forecasting cloud ceiling and visibility at select airports, warm-season convection over northeastern Colorado, and severe weather and extreme precipitation across the contiguous United States in analogous fashion to the Storm Prediction Center’s convective outlooks and Weather Prediction Center’s (WPC’s) excessive rainfall outlooks. He is currently working with colleagues at WPC to transition the latter forecast product into operations. Greg has also performed several forecast verification studies of extreme precipitation in order to make better informed machine learning model design choices and better contextualize the performance of those models. As a graduate student, Greg has also acquired extensive field project experience from numerous different field programs across the country. Furthermore, he has also engaged in interdisciplinary collaborations between National Weather Service forecasters, social scientists, and atmospheric researchers to better understand the meteorological and communication challenges associated with concurrent and collocated tornado and flash flood hazards. Currently in the process of beginning to assemble his dissertation, Greg anticipates graduating in autumn 2018.

Tuesday, February 20, 2018
1:30-2:30
FL2-1022, Large Auditorium 

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1022

Posted by Jessa Johnson (jessaj@ucar.edu) at x2751
Hosting lab/division or program:
WSAP
Will this event be webcast?
Wednesday, February 21, 2018 - 1:00pm

The NCAR Fellows Association is hosting a panel on proposals and budgets on Wed., Feb. 21st, and we would like to invite all postdocs and grad students in the NCAR|UCAR|UCP. Please invite those in your lab who might not have access to Staff Notes because they are visitors. 

Invitation to a Proposals & Budgets Panel

Time:  Wed., Feb. 21st, 3:00 PM
Place:  EOL Atrium (FL1 - 2198)
Panelists: Wiebke Dierling (RAL scientist), Matthew Long (CGD scientist), and Valerie Koch (NCAR Budgets & Planning manager)

Panel Agenda: Budget & Planning manager Valerie Koch will provide insights on important aspects of budgets. NCAR scientists Wiebke Dierling and Matthew Long will answer questions and share their experiences. 

Topics might include: how to develop collaborations that lead to grant writing, can you send in a short description to a program manager to see if the ideas align with funding goals, and what are important things to understand about budgets.

The NCAR Fellows Association is here to create a supportive community and provide career development workshops for postdocs and graduate students, whether they are visiting or employed here.  

Thank you for your help in spreading the word to postdocs and grad students in your lab! 

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL1
Room:
EOL Atrium FL1 - 2198

Posted by Valerie Sloan (vsloan@ucar.edu) at x2572
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR Education & Outreach
Will this event be webcast?
No
Tuesday, February 20, 2018 - 2:30pm

Are you interested in K-12 education and public outreach? If so, please join your colleagues in a discussion about this topic on Tuesday, February 20th from 2:30-3:30pm in the CG1 South Auditorium. During this meeting we'll share updates on education and outreach efforts happening across the organization, discuss ideas for collaborations across groups, and discuss how we'd like these meetings to be structured in the future.

To RSVP please send an email to Becca Hatheway (hatheway@ucar.edu) and you'll be added to the calendar invite. In addition, if you haven't already signed up for the email list for this group (k12@ucar.edu) please let Becca know that you would like to be added to the list.

We hope to see you at this meeting!

Building:
CG1
Room:
South Auditorium

Posted by Becca Hatheway (hatheway@ucar.edu) at x2597
Hosting lab/division or program:
UCAR Center for Science Education
Will this event be webcast?
No