Staff Notes Daily Calendar Events

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 - 1:00pm

A Beginners Introduction to the Analog Ensemble Technique

LAURA CLEMENTE-HARDING | THE PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIVERSITY, UNIVERSITY PARK, PA, AND THE ENGINEER RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT CENTER, ALEXANDRIA, VA

Have you heard about the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique? Would you like to learn more about the technique and its evolution? Want to learn its possible applications and the current state-of-the-art research being conducted using this technique? Then come for a beginners adventure into the AnEn technique brought to you by the Warner Internship for Scientific Enrichment (WISE) Program!

 The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique was developed to generate a probability distribution function (PDF) of an expected outcome from a current deterministic forecast and corresponding sets of historical forecasts and verifying observations. The technique has implications in physical science subject areas where: 1) single deterministic predictions, past predictions, and their corresponding observations are available; 2) it is necessary to have quantifiable and justifiable measures of uncertainty; and 3) computational resources are precious.  The AnEn technique provides an alternative option for generating probabilistic forecasts without requiring the computational expense of a NWP ensemble thus allowing scientists to choose between the tradeoff of higher resolution modeling or ensemble modeling at a coarser resolution. The AnEn improves short-term weather prediction accuracy, decreases real-time computational costs, and provides spatial and temporal uncertainty estimation (Delle Monache et al. 2011; Delle Monache et al. 2013; Alessasndrini et al. 2015; Zhang et al. 2015).  Applications of the technique include but are not limited to: a range of weather parameters (e.g., 10-m and 80-m wind speed, 2-m temperature, relative humidity) solar power forecasting, wind power forecasting, air quality forecasting, tropical cyclone predictions, and downscaling of parameters as wind speed and precipitation.  

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 1:00PM-2:00PM FL2-1001

Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Jessa Johnson (jessaj@ucar.edu) at x2751
Hosting lab/division or program:
RAL
Monday, July 31, 2017 - 3:30pm

ACOM Seminar

IASI has been probing the atmosphere for 10 years: Highlights and what’s next

Dr. Cathy Clerbaux
Senior Scientist at LATMOS/CNRS and NCAR Affiliate Scientist

The IASI family of instruments has been sounding the atmosphere since 2006 onboard the Metop series of satellites. Using the radiance data recorded in the thermal infrared spectral range concentrations for atmospheric compounds can be derived, and circulation patterns can be followed from space. Now that a ten year record of trends can be determined, we will be able to manipulate the data in near real time to detect exceptional events, such as large fires, volcanic plumes, specific dynamics events, and high pollution peaks. We will also be able to contribute to future forecasting using data assimilation. The talk will present some recent results and also future plans.

 

Monday, July 31, 2017, 3:30 p.m.

Refreshments 3:15 p.m.

 

NCAR Foothills Laboratory

3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, CO 80301

FL2-1022, Large Auditorium
Live webcast: http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1022

Posted by Bonnie Slagel (bonnie@ucar.edu) at x8318
Hosting lab/division or program:
ACOM
Will this event be webcast?
Monday, July 24, 2017 - 3:30pm

ACOM Seminar

Title: New Sensors for large-scale air quality monitoring

Speaker: Suresh Dhaniyala, Bayard D. Clarkson Distinguished Professor of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, Clarkson University

Abstract: An important air quality parameter, from a human health perspective, is the mass concentration of particles smaller than 2.5μm, i.e. PM2.5.  The importance of this air quality parameter for human health was first established from a series of epidemiological studies in the US and Europe in 1990s and subsequently ,PM2.5 has become globally accepted as one of the critical measures of air pollution. Conventional PM2.5 monitoring by national agencies has been based on techniques focused on accuracy of mass measurements rather than convenience of deployment. With the need for high temporal- and spatial-resolution of air quality data for health effect studies, newer measurement technologies are increasingly being explored and deployed.

In this talk, I will provide an overview of the currently available low-cost monitoring technologies and their advantages and limitations. I will then introduce our efforts to develop a new low-cost aerosol monitoring instrument based on electrical-mobility technique for real-time monitoring of particle size, number ,and mass concentrations over abroad diameter range of 10 nm to 2.5 μm. The combination of existing and emerging low-cost monitoring sensors will help improve our understanding of health effects of aerosol particles and result in the evolution of more locally-appropriate air quality parameters.

Monday, July 24, 2017, 3:30p.m.
NCAR Foothills Laboratory
3450 Mitchell Lane,  Boulder, CO 80301
FL2-1001
Live webcast:  http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live

 

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Bonnie Slagel (bonnie@ucar.edu) at x8318
Hosting lab/division or program:
ACOM
Will this event be webcast?
Friday, August 11, 2017 - 12:00pm

Overview – During the first part of this session, you will learn whether your family and income is properly protected and empowered.  Also learn about Social Security Benefits.  Enroll in Connect.

Type of event:
Wellness/Benefits
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
Human Resources
Will this event be webcast?
Friday, September 1, 2017 - 12:00pm

Overview - Learn key elements of Estate Planning and what to expect in the work-to-retirement transition.  Enroll in Connect.

Building:
FL1
Room:
1001

Posted by Laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
Human Resources
Will this event be webcast?
Friday, August 18, 2017 - 12:00pm

Overview - Discover the benefits of financial planning and different types of investment options.  Enroll in Connect.This session is not webcast due to state licensing issues.

Type of event:
Wellness/Benefits
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
Human Resources
Will this event be webcast?
No
Wednesday, August 2, 2017 - 3:00pm

Searching for magnetic cycles through Asteroseismology

In the Sun, the frequencies of the acoustic modes are observed to vary in phase with the activity level. These frequency variations are expected to be common in solar-type stars and contain information about the activity-related changes that take place in their interior. The unprecedented high-quality long-term photometric time-series obtained by Kepler provide an unique opportunity to detect and characterize stellar magnetic cycles through Asteroseismology. In this work, we analyze a large sample of solar-type stars, combining the LEGACY sample and 25 Kepler Objects of Interest (KOIs). The original data sets are segmented into 90-d sub-series overlapped by 45-d. For each segment, the individual frequencies are obtained through a Bayesian peak-bagging analysis and used to compute the mean frequency shifts. For each star, the temporal variation in the frequency shifts is then compared with that obtained from a cross-correlation method, as well as with the variation in: (1) the mode heights; (2) the granulation characteristic timescale; and (3) the photometric magnetic activity proxy. For some of the stars, we find evidences for (quasi-)periodic variations in the acoustic frequencies accompanied by variations in other activity proxies. Surprisingly, there are cases in which the mode heights appear to vary in phase with the frequency shifts, rather than the expected anti-phase. Our results also suggest that the amplitude of the frequency shifts increases with the stellar effective temperature and decreases with the surface rotation period.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
CG1
Room:
2126

Posted by Sheryl Shapiro (sheryls@ucar.edu) at x1567
Hosting lab/division or program:
HAO
Will this event be webcast?
Wednesday, July 26, 2017 - 3:00pm

Variability of the Earth’s ionosphere and its drivers

The ionosphere is a part of the upper atmosphere (75–1000 km in altitude) where atoms and molecules are ionized appreciably and the propagation of electromagnetic waves is significantly affected by the ionization. Important space weather phenomena such as disruption of communication and navigation systems and damage on power transmission lines are caused by the ionosphere, and therefore, accurate knowledge of ionospheric phenomena and their drivers has a vital importance for the mitigation of the impact of space weather on the society. This talk will provide an overview of ionospheric phenomena and their drivers. In Part 1, ionospheric climatology induced by solar radiation and anomalies associated with electrodynamical coupling of plasma and neutral particles will be introduced. Three key elements for understanding ionospheric phenomena are electric fields, neutral winds, and neutral composition. The physical processes underlying these three elements and their application will be explained in Part 2. Various forms of ionospheric disturbances induced by various sources (geomagnetic storms, plasma instability, tropospheric storms, tornadoes, volcanos, earthquakes, and rocket launches) will be presented in Part 3.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
CG1
Room:
South Auditorium

Posted by Sheryl Shapiro (sheryls@ucar.edu) at x1567
Hosting lab/division or program:
HAO
Will this event be webcast?
Yes - CG1-Auditorium - http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live
Thursday, August 3, 2017 - 2:00pm

Rescuing the Sunspot Number Revisions and its implications

The long-term record of solar activity is of fundamental importance for solar physics, solar-terrestrial relations, and even the climate debate. A decade ago, the discrepancies between the International Sunspot Number and the newer Group Sunspot Number were clearly identified and quantified. I urged the solar community to resolve the problems and reconcile the two series. The resulting Sunspot Number Workshops [2011-2015] brought many details and new data to light, but have turned out to be complete failures: instead of the hoped-for, agreed-upon, and unified solar activity record, the field has splintered into ~seven ‘new and improved’ but incompatible records hindering current and future research into solar activity influence on our environment and into the sun itself, in addition to polluting our science by ugly and acrimonious activism not becoming serious scientific discourse. I show that it is possible to ‘rescue’ the revision efforts and to recover from the failures. The resulting record has implications for NOAA’s Climate Data Record and for calibrations and reconstructions of the Total Solar Irradiance record.  

 
Building:
CG1
Room:
2126

Posted by Sheryl Shapiro (sheryls@ucar.edu) at x1567
Hosting lab/division or program:
HAO
Will this event be webcast?
Wednesday, August 2, 2017 - 12:00pm

“Toy” Model of Convective Dynamics for Testing Data Assimilation Methodologies

Jun-Ichi Yano
CNRM, Météo France, Toulouse

The purpose of this talk is to propose a "toy" model for testing various data assimilation methodologies for convective-scale predictions.

All the major numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are now running their regional model with horizontal resolutions that marginally resolve individual convective elements. 

Under this new NWP regime, new assimilation strategies are required due to highly transient nature of the atmospheric convective system with much shorter prediction time scale.

The traditional approaches for testing a new assimilation methodology in the preliminary phase is to use a series of Lorenz models (1963, 1982), that qualitatively represent the basic behavior of the synoptic-scale flows.

However, for the convective-scale NWP, these are no longer optimal models for testing, but a new type of "toy" model is required that represents the convection dynamics better.

This talk suggests that the convective energy-cycle system that I have been working on with R. S. Plant serves for this purpose by adding a spatial dependency to its original formulation. 

Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017
12:00pm – 1:00pm
Mesa Lab, 680 - Penthouse
(Bring your lunch)

Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
680 - Penthouse

Posted by Michelle Patton (mpatton@ucar.edu) at x1253
Hosting lab/division or program:
IMAGe
Will this event be webcast?
No
Tuesday, July 25, 2017 - 12:00pm

Presenting Data and Information: A Summary of the Edward Tufte Course and Its Relevant Lessons for NCAR Scientists

David John Gagne II

National Center for Atmospheric Research

I recently attended the one-day course on “Presenting Data and Information” by Edward Tufte, a major pioneer of data visualization, thanks to generous support from Dr. Doug Nychka and IMAGe. During the course, Tufte covered important principles of analytical design and guidelines for giving effective presentations. He also provided his perspective on a wide range of topics related to data visualization and showcased visualizations that exemplified his design principles. In this seminar, I will highlight important lessons from the course, analyze some of the featured visualizations, and discuss how NCAR scientists can incorporate these design principles into their scientific workflows.

 

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

12:00pm – 1:00pm

Mesa Lab, 680 - Penthouse

(Bring your lunch)

 

 
Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
680 - Penthouse

Posted by Michelle Patton (mpatton@ucar.edu) at x1253
Hosting lab/division or program:
IMAGe
Will this event be webcast?
No
Friday, August 25, 2017 - 12:00pm

Overview - Gain a better understanding of Medicare, what is and isn't covered, how to register, and review various plan options.  Enroll in Connect.

Type of event:
Wellness/Benefits
Building:
CG1
Room:
2126

Posted by Laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
Human Resources
Will this event be webcast?
Thursday, August 3, 2017 - 3:30pm

James Done 
NCAR/MMM

As populations increase in hazard-prone regions, the human, cultural and economic costs rise, and will continue to rise in the future. The likely scenario of the weather and climate hazards themselves changing in the future will compound the problem. A transformation of how weather and climate risk is assessed and integrated with risk management practice is needed for society to confront this new era of weather and climate risk. Bringing physics to bear on risk assessment has the potential to transform our understanding of weather and climate risk. Furthermore, physically based risk assessments that are informed by risk management practice are a potentially powerful component of climate resilience. Three recent examples will be presented to illustrate the flow between physically based weather and climate risk assessments and community action.

The first example is the development of a terrain-aware tropical cyclone wind probability assessment at the global scale. In collaboration with a reinsurance broker, an approach to modeling tropical cyclone wind footprints is developed by fitting a parametric wind field model to historical and synthetic cyclone track data, and bringing the winds down to the surface using a 3-dimensional numerical boundary model, accounting for terrain and surface roughness effects. The new wind probability assessments are being used to understand inland wind risk in regions of complex topography, and assess public and private risk management strategies in regions of sparse historical data. The second example explores how the relationship between residential losses and hurricane winds is modified through building codes. Adherence to the Florida building code drives down losses by up to 70%, and the code is cost-effective with a return on investment after 12 years under current climate. The final example explores the role of decadal climate predictions in water resource and flood risk management. The multi-disciplinary UDECIDE (Understanding Decision-Climate Interactions on Decadal Scales) project combines statistical and physical assessments of climate prediction skill with data from interviews with managers to identify intersections at the decadal scale in support of effective management.

Refreshments:  3:15pm

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001 (Note Location)

Posted by Bobbie Weaver (weaver@ucar.edu) at x8946
Hosting lab/division or program:
MMM
Will this event be webcast?
Thursday, August 10, 2017 - 3:30pm

Nedjelika Žagar
University of Ljubljana
Ljubljana, Slovenia

Many studies of the forecast error growth focused on the extra-tropical quasi-geostrophic dynamics and often considered the error-free large-scale initial state.  In contrast, the operational global numerical weather prediction and ensemble prediction systems are characterized by uncertainties in the initial state at all scales, especially in the tropics.  In this seminar the evidence will be discussed about the dominant role of the large-scale error growth early in the forecasts in comparison with the errors cascades from the smaller scales.   A new parametric model for the representation of the error growth will be derived.  In contrast to the commonly used models, the new model does not involve computation of the time derivatives of the empirical data. The asymptotic error is not a fitting parameter, but it is computed from the model constants. 

Simulated forecast errors by the operational ensemble prediction system of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts are decomposed into scales and the new model is applied independently to every zonal wavenumber.  A combination of hyperbolic tangent functions in the parametrization of the error growth proves robust to reliably model complex growth dynamics across many scales.  The range of useful prediction skill, estimated as a scale where forecast errors exceeds 60% of their asymptotic values is around 7 days on large scales and 2-3 days at 1000 km scale.  The new model is easily transformed to the widely used model of Dalcher and Kalnay (1987) to discuss the scale-dependent growth as a sum of two terms, the so-called a and b terms.  Their comparison shows that at planetary scales their contributions to the growth in the first 2 days are similar whereas at small scales the b term describes most of a rapid exponential growth of errors towards saturation. 

Refreshments: 3:15pm


Building:
FL2
Room:
1022

Posted by Bobbie Weaver (weaver@ucar.edu) at x8946
Hosting lab/division or program:
MMM
Will this event be webcast?
Friday, August 4, 2017 - 12:00pm

Overview - Learn about UCAR's retirement benefits including the TIAA retirement program and how to maximize their value.  Enroll in Connect.

Type of event:
Wellness/Benefits
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
Human Resources
Will this event be webcast?
Saturday, August 12, 2017 - 10:00am
The NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center will be hosting an Open House on Saturday, August 12, from 10 a.m. - 4 p.m. as part of the festivities celebrating the City of Cheyenne's 150th anniversary. All staff and their families are enthusiastically invited to attend, and enjoy the visitor center and hands-on activities for all ages.
 
Between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m., NCAR, UCAR SciEd, and University of Wyoming staff and students will present fun, interactive events and games for the whole family, including:
  • Robot demonstrations
  • Raspberry Pi video games
  • Tornado simulations
  • Computational thinking challenges
The visitor center is also inaugurating new exhibits, videos, and information about the Sun and the oceans, the new Cheyenne supercomputer, and the 2017 solar eclipse.
 
We look forward to seeing you at the NWSC!
 
Date: 12 August
Location: NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC)
Address: 8120 Veta Drive, Cheyenne, WY 82009
Time: Open 10a.m.-4p.m., activities and demos 11a.m.-3p.m.
Admission: free
Type of event:
Public Outreach
Building:
NWSC
Room:
Visitor Center

Posted by Marijke Unger (marijke@ucar.edu) at x1285
Will this event be webcast?
No