Planned closure - NCAR Mesa Lab Road & Facilities - July 4 at 4 pm  more info>

Staff Notes Daily Calendar Events

Thursday, July 14, 2016 - 8:00am

Registration is now open for the 4th Annual Engineering for Climate Extremes Workshop (on July 14, 2016).The attached flyer and website have more information, or you can register directly at the link below.https://www.regonline.com/Register/Checkin.aspx?EventID=1827306The theme of this year’s meeting is “Water-Energy-People” within a context of resilience within coupled natural and social systems.Societal and climate change, and heterogeneous resource distribution are increasingly highlighting critical vulnerabilities within the WEP system. The interplay of economic and policy drivers with social and environmental changes and climate stresses is important but largely unexplored. The workshop will highlight knowledge gaps and focus discussion on ways that ECEP can help to improve WEP system resilience.Abstracts are invited for “Ignite” (5-minute) and longer (15-minute) presentations. Participants are welcome from all areas involved in strengthening societal resilience to weather and climate extremes. Participants include representatives from Indigenous Americans, Re/insurance, Local Government, Industry and Business, and National and International Universities.WORKSHOP VENUE: Main Seminar Room, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder WORKSHOP DATES: July 14, 2016 WORKSHOP REGISTRATION FEE: $100 (Early Bird Registration deadline is June 14, 2016)Beginning June 15, 2016 Registration is $150.On-site registration $200

Type of event:
Workshop
Building:
FL2
Room:
1022 Large Auditorium

Posted by Kris Marwitz (kmarwitz@ucar.edu) at x8198
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR, MMM
Friday, July 15, 2016 - 3:00pm

Light appetizers and drinks are served. This is an opportunity to get out and relax with colleagues. Starts at 3:00 p.m.

Type of event:
Celebration
Building:
CG1
Room:
Patio

Posted by Kristen Alipit (kalipit@ucar.edu) at x1661
Hosting lab/division or program:
Organization-Wide Groups, EAC - Employee Activities Committee
Wednesday, July 20, 2016 - 11:30am

NASA's Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) mission is now actively collecting space-based measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Data are collected with high spatial and temporal resolution and the data product includes both an estimate of column averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction (XCO2) and an estimate of uncertainty. In this talk we will take a look at how these estimates are obtained. As with any remote sensing method, the measurements are indirect. The OCO-2 instrument measures reflected sunlight in three spectral bands that make a single "sounding”. These are then used to estimate the XCO2 using a physical forward model for how a given CO2 concentration, and other atmospheric properties, affect a sounding. This estimation is called “retrieval” and is done by applying Bayes Theorem. Due to the amount of data collected, some computational shortcuts are taken to obtain an estimate of the posterior mode (X.hat) and posterior variance (S.hat), using the so-called “optimal estimation” method of Rodgers (2000). Even thought the forward model is not linear, users usually treat the posterior distribution as Gaussian with mean X.hat and variance S.hat. Also, uncertainty due to several uncertain parameter inputs and model discrepancy is not taken into account. A UQ group within the OCO-2 mission has developed a test-bed, where a surrogate forward model (simplified, but physically realistic) can be used to study various aspects of the retrieval. In this talk we will discuss the discuss a few test-bed experiments, such as full exploration of the posterior via Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. This is joint work with Amy Braverman and Jonathan Hobbs – Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Damon Room

Posted by Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) at x2431
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR, CISL, IMAGe
Monday, July 11, 2016 - 8:00am

CISL is excited to announce the second course coordinated by The Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe) in the Beyond P-values series.

This three-day course, July 11-13, 2016, will provide an introduction to the theory and methods of Bayesian Statistics. Bayesian Statistics is an emergent area of Statistics applicable to many problems and especially relevant in the context of uncertainty quantification. The course will cover some simple one- and two-parameter problems to provide a flavor for the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. We will then discuss Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for making inference using more complicated (higher dimensional) models. By the end of the course the partcipants will fit and evaluate models for a dataset of atmospheric CO2 concentrations taken from ice-core measurements. We'll use the open-source statistical software R [https://www.r-project.org/] and the open-source MCMC package that works seamlessly with R called Stan [mc-stan.org/]. The format of the course is hands-on and participants will use their own laptops. 

The lead instructor for the course is Alix Gitelman, Professor of Statistics at Oregon State University. She will be assisted by Nathan Lenssen (Columbia University), Doug Nychka, Philippe Naveau and Dorit Hammerling and others. Seats are limited to 12 participants and to apply, please visit the Bayesian Statistics Application webpage. Please note that the course is only open to staff and visitors working on NCAR's Boulder, CO campuses.

Type of event:
Tutorial/Training
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
ML- 239 Damon Room

Posted by Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) at x2431
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR, CISL, IMAGe
Monday, August 1, 2016 - 11:00am

What Drives the Projection of
Subtropical Precipitation Decline?

Jie He
Princeton University

Abstract: 

The subtropics encompass many of the world’s driest regions and climate models robustly predict a large-scale decline in subtropical precipitation from anthropogenic forcing. This projection has become popularly related to the “dry-get-drier” paradigm. The expectation that climate change will generally exacerbate the rainfall deficiency of the subtropical regions has excited great concerns. On the other hand, some studies have attributed the subtropical precipitation decline to the poleward expansion of the Hadley cell. In this talk, I will show that neither the “dry-get-drier” nor poleward expansion mechanism is relevant to the large-scale subtropical precipitation decline. It is found that the subtropical precipitation decline forms primarily from the fast adjustment to CO2forcing in which neither of the two proposed mechanisms exist. Permitting the increase in moisture and the Hadley cell expansion does not substantially change the characteristics of the large-scale subtropical precipitation decline. This precipitation change should be interpreted as a response to the land-sea warming contrast, direct radiative forcing of CO2 and in certain regions, pattern of SST changes. In addition, a careful examination of the spatial patterns of the projected precipitation change shows that the subtropical precipitation decline is primarily located over ocean. Over subtropical land regions, the precipitation decline is muted or even reversed by the land-sea warming contrast.

Monday, August 1, 2016
11:00 am – 12:00 pm

Mesa Lab, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO
ML-245-Chapman Room

For more information, please contact Teresa Foster, teresaf@ucar.edu, phone: 303-497-1741

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
ML-245 Chapman Room

Posted by Teresa Foster (teresaf@ucar.edu) at x1741
Hosting lab/division or program:
CGD
Friday, July 8, 2016 - 11:00am

“Introduction to Cheyenne”

The new 5.34-petaflops Cheyenne HPC system is the subject of a presentation scheduled for 11 am, Friday, July 8, Room 2126 at the NCAR Center Green Lab in Boulder.

Dave Hart, CISL’s User Services Section manager, will discuss the capabilities of the new system, which will be installed at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center in the second half of 2016 and is scheduled to become operational at the beginning of 2017.

This session will be available live.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
CG1
Room:
2126

Posted by S Gentile (sgentile@ucar.edu) at x2480
Hosting lab/division or program:
CISL
Friday, July 1, 2016 - 11:00am

“Introduction to Cheyenne”

The new 5.34-petaflops Cheyenne HPC system is the subject of a presentation scheduled for 11 am, Friday, July 1, Room 1001 at the NCAR Foothills Lab in Boulder.

Dave Hart, CISL’s User Services Section manager, will discuss the capabilities of the new system, which will be installed at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center in the second half of 2016 and is scheduled to become operational at the beginning of 2017.

An additional presentation is scheduled at:

  • Center Green (CG1-2126) - 11 a.m. Friday, July 8

The sessions will be available live.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Silvia Gentile (sgentile@ucar.edu) at x2480
Hosting lab/division or program:
CISL
Monday, July 18, 2016 - 12:00pm

Stochastic simulation of predictive space-time scenarios of wind speed using observations and physical model outputs

Dr. Julie Bessac
Argonne National Laboratory

We propose a statistical space-time model for predicting atmospheric wind speed based on deterministic numerical weather predictions (NWP) and historical measurements. The wind speed forecast is then represented as stochastic predictive scenarios that are targeted for power grid applications where they account for the uncertainty associated with renewable energy generation. We consider a Gaussian multivariate space-time framework that combines multiple sources of past physical model outputs and measurements along with NWP model predictions in order to produce a probabilistic wind speed forecast within the prediction window. The process is expressed hierarchically in order to facilitate the specification of cross-variances between the two datasets. We illustrate this strategy on wind speed forecast during several months in 2012 for a region near the Great Lakes in the United States. The results show that the prediction is improved in the mean-squared sense relative to the numerical forecasts as well as in probabilistic scores. Moreover, the samples are shown to produce realistic wind scenarios based on sample spectra. Co-author: Emil Constantinesc, Mihai Anitescu

Monday, July 18, 2016
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Penthouse (Tower B, 680)
(Bring your lunch)

Please contact Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) with any questions.

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Penthouse (Tower B, 680)

Posted by Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) at x2431
Hosting lab/division or program:
IMAGe
Tuesday, July 5, 2016 - 12:00pm

Modeling Snow Water Equivalent in the Rocky Mountain Region

Colette Smirniotis
San Diego State University

Accurately modeling and predicting snow cover presents a scientific challenge, in part because it is difficult to measure this quantity directly. Thus, indirect measurements are also used to infer snow cover. Given the choice of different indirect measurements and also different algorithms to retrieve snow cover from these data, there is no single, standard gridded snow data set that can be used for climate model evaluation. The goal of this project is to use a Bayesian statistical model to create a blended product of snow water equivalent (SWE) from multiple data sets and in the process also quantify the uncertainty of this across different locations. To combine the data sets, a new version of the R package LatticeKrig is implemented that can handle the “change of support” problem common in spatial statistics and inherent in this project. LatticeKrig models the spatial process with a multiresolution basis function representation in a computationally efficient manner. Monthly snow predictions from the blended product are calculated along with the standard errors of the predictors.

Tuesday, July 5, 2016
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Chapman Room
(Bring your lunch)

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Chapman Room

Posted by Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) at x2431
Hosting lab/division or program:
IMAGe
Friday, July 22, 2016 - 12:00pm

Multivariate Space-time Modelling of Global Climate Ensembles 

Matt Edwards
Newcastle University

Ensembles are generated from global climate models in order to study the state of the earth's system. These ensembles often require tens of Terabytes of storage and effort to control and coordinate access. This project explores data compression of ensembles via multivariate global space-time models. The methodology extends an existing scalar multi-step conditional approach, for axially symmetric processes, to the multivariate setting. This is achieved with the specification of non-stationary vector autoregressive spectral processes that provide computationally feasible algorithms in high-dimensions. Ultimately, this paradigm provides earth system investigators with the ability to generate new ensemble members through conditional statistical model simulations.

Friday, July 22, 2016
12:00 pm - 1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Chapman Room
(Bring your lunch)

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Chapman Room

Posted by Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu) at x2431
Hosting lab/division or program:
IMAGe
Friday, July 1, 2016 - 3:30pm

COMET hydrologist Matt Kelsch will discuss The Boulder 2013 Flood, Climate, and Resiliency Planning at 3:30pm. We hope that you will be joining us via UCARLive at http://ucarconnect.ucar.edu/live

Type of event:
Workshop

Posted by Karen Herman (ksmithhe@ucar.edu) at x2590
Hosting lab/division or program:
UCAR Center for Science Education
Thursday, July 14, 2016 - 3:30pm

The Influence of a Precursor Central American Gyre and a Northerly Surge into the Gulf of Tehuantepec on the Formation of Hurricane Patricia in October 2015 

Lance F. Bosart
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
University at Albany/SUNY
Albany, NY

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated advisories on Tropical Depression (TD) Patricia at 1500 UTC 20 October 2015.  Patricia originated from a pre-existing area of disturbed weather over the eastern Gulf of Tehuantepec (GoT) subsequent to the formation of a Central American gyre (CAG) and a surge of northerly gap flow across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec and into the GoT.  The gap flow was driven by strong low-level height rises over the northern Gulf of Mexico behind a southeastward-moving cold front.  Strong low-level anticyclogenesis over the Gulf of Mexico and the southeastern United States behind the cold front and CAG-related surface pressure falls over Central America contributed to the development of an anomalously strong meridional surface pressure gradient that further drove this gap flow.  An elongated strip of cyclonic shear vorticity formed along the eastern margin of the gap flow over the GoT while oceanic heat and moisture fluxes maximized in the core of the flow.  Subsequently, this vorticity strip broke down into a cyclonic vortex by 0600 UTC 20 October and transitioned into TD Patricia by 1500 UTC 20 October as this TD moved over a region of anomalously warm SSTs and high oceanic heat content in the presence of large oceanic heat and moisture fluxes.  This sequence of events prior and their likely importance to the genesis of TD Patricia will be illustrated.

Thursday, 14 July 2016, 3:30 PM
Refreshments 3:15 PM

NCAR-Foothills Laboratory
3450 Mitchell Lane
Bldg 2, Small Seminar, Room 1001

Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
FL2
Room:
1001

Posted by Caroline Haws (haws@ucar.edu) at x8189
Hosting lab/division or program:
MMM
Wednesday, July 20, 2016 - 12:30pm

Time variable eddy mixing in the global Sea Surface Salinity maxima

Julius Busecke

Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory

Abstract:

Lateral mixing by mesoscale eddies is widely recognized as a crucial mechanism for the global ocean circulation and the associated heat/salt/tracer transports. The Salinity in the Upper Ocean Processes Study (SPURS) confirmed the importance of eddy mixing for the surface salinity fields even in the center of the subtropical gyre of the North Atlantic - sometimes described as an 'eddy desert'. 

 Several studies have since estimated the relevance of eddy mixing compared to the surface forcing by net evaporation - mostly focused on the North Atlantic. Here we present a novel approach to quantify and compare the importance of eddy mixing for the saltiest regions of the world ocean. Global 2D passive tracer experiments in a 1/10 degree MITgcm setup are initialized with climatological salinity fields and stirred with observed surface velocities, taking full advantage of the longstanding record of altimetry observations.

 The importance of eddy mixing is quantified using  a Lagrangian framework (salinity coordinates) which eliminates advection from the salinity/volume budget, focusing on the resulting water masses which are ultimately advected through the shallow overturning circulation in all major ocean basins. This enables us to resolve temporal variability on seasonal to inter annual time scales. Investigation of the mechanisms for variability reveal regional differences with possible implications for long term surface salinity variability.

Wednesday, 20 July 2016

12:30 pm – 1:30 pm

Mesa Lab, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO

ML-245 – Chapman Room

For more information, please contact Teresa Foster, teresaf@ucar.edu, 303-497-1741

 
Type of event:
Seminar/Symposium
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
ML-245 - Chapman Room

Posted by Teresa Foster (teresaf@ucar.edu) at x1741
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR, CGD
Friday, July 8, 2016 - 6:00pm

Parent's Night Out is a great opportunity for you and your significant other to get out to dinner and a movie! By emailing the Center Director, Stephanie Ivancic, you could sign your child up from 6pm-8pm ($30 for one child or $40 for two children) or 6pm-10pm ($50 for one child and $60 for two children).

Children are welcome to wear their pajamas for a fun evening of movies and pizza! If your child has a video that he or she would like to share, bring it in. Please make sure it is labeled and let the fun begin! Siblings under the age of 7 are welcome as well.

We are inviting all UCAR employees to take advantage of this as your child does not need to be enrolled at the center to partake!

Children’s Creative Learning Center (CCLC)
Stephanie Ivancic (sivancic@cclc.com)
3050 34th Street, Boulder
http://www.cclc.com/our-centers/boulder/co/000674/

Type of event:
Wellness/Benefits
Building:
CCLC: 3050 34th Street, Boulder

Posted by Laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
UCAR
Friday, July 22, 2016 - 6:00pm

Parent's Night Out is a great opportunity for you and your significant other to get out to dinner and a movie! By emailing the Center Director, Stephanie Ivancic, you could sign your child up from 6pm-8pm ($30 for one child or $40 for two children) or 6pm-10pm ($50 for one child and $60 for two children).

Children are welcome to wear their pajamas for a fun evening of movies and pizza! If your child has a video that he or she would like to share, bring it in. Please make sure it is labeled and let the fun begin! Siblings under the age of 7 are welcome as well.

We are inviting all UCAR employees to take advantage of this as your child does not need to be enrolled at the center to partake!

Children’s Creative Learning Center (CCLC)
Stephanie Ivancic (sivancic@cclc.com)
3050 34th Street, Boulder
http://www.cclc.com/our-centers/boulder/co/000674/

Type of event:
Wellness/Benefits
Building:
CCLC: 3050 34th Street, Boulder

Posted by Laurie Carr (lcarr@ucar.edu) at x8702
Hosting lab/division or program:
UCAR
Wednesday, August 10, 2016 - 8:00am
The Regional Climate Tutorial will be offered over a 3-day period from Wednesday 10-12 August, 2016, at the NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado.    This tutorial provides a broad overview of best practices for developing regional climate data and how it can be used for impact assessments.  The Tutorial will consist of both lectures and hands-on laboratory exercises, which will be taught by a team of NCAR climate scientists, regional climate modelers, and data scientists. Topics include:    1. Dynamical Downscaling (the WRF model will be used as an example of a regional climate model) - Best practices and guidance on designing regional climate simulations - Evaluating dynamical model output - Manipulating dynamical model output - Sources of uncertainty in regional climate simulations   2. Statistical downscaling of regional climate  - Overview of statistical downscaling methods  - Statistical modeling of extreme values - Spatial statistics - Estimating local impacts and extreme events not captured by dynamical models   3.  Integrating downscaled information in regional climate impact assessments. 
Type of event:
Tutorial/Training
Building:
FL2
Room:
1022

Posted by Kris Marwitz (kmarwitz@ucar.edu) at x8198
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR, MMM
Friday, August 5, 2016 - 2:00pm

NCAR's Up the Hill Race typically features bicycle, and running races up the Mesa Lab hill with an all-staff party to celebrate.

Type of event:
Celebration
Building:
Mesa Lab
Room:
Tree Plaza

Posted by Kristen Alipit (kalipit@ucar.edu) at x1661
Hosting lab/division or program:
Organization-Wide Groups, EAC - Employee Activities Committee
Monday, July 25, 2016 - 8:30am

TUTORIAL OVERVIEW 

 The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model Tutorial will be offered from 25 July- 3 August 2016 at the NCAR Foothills Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado.

The Basic tutorial will consist of lectures on various components of the WRF modeling system along with hands-on practice sessions. The topics include:

  1. WRF Pre-processing System
  2. WRF Dynamics and Numerics
  3. WRF Physics
  4. WRF Software Framework
  5. WRF Post-processing and Graphical Tools

The WRFDA tutorial will include lectures on a variety of topics on the full capability of the WRFDA system, along with hands-on practice sessions. The topics covered will include:

  1. Observation types, formats, and preprocessing
  2. Background error modeling and estimation
  3. 3D- and 4D-Variational data assimilation
  4. Ensemble and Hybrid Variational-Ensemble data assimilation methods
  5. Cycling with WRF and WRFDA
  6. Visualization and verification tools
  7. Guidance for code developers and new observation types

REQUIREMENTS

Basic knowledge of atmospheric science and numerical modeling, as well as working in a Unix computer environment, is required for the class. WRF Tutorial participants are strongly encouraged to work through the WRF-ARW online tutorial, especially if you have not used the model before. Walking through the online tutorial will provide an overview of the system, which can help enhance your learning experience once you are here (even if you cannot compile and run the code physically). If you run into any problems while working through this, feel free to contact "wrfhelp at ucar dot edu".

All participants are also strongly encouraged to get familiar with Unix/Linux working environment, as working through directories, editing text files and Fortran code are absolutely essential to operate the modeling system programs. One can easily find Unix tutorials for beginners online for this purpose.

 

Type of event:
Tutorial/Training
Building:
FL2
Room:
1002 - Large Auditorium

Posted by Kris Marwitz (kmarwitz@ucar.edu) at x8198
Hosting lab/division or program:
NCAR, MMM