Predictability of Tropical Cyclone Intensity: A Modern Myth in TC Prediction?

Shuyi S. Chen
Professor of Meteorology and Physical Oceanography
Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science
University of Miami

The need for improving tropical cyclone (TC) intensity forecasts has been a driving force for much of the recent efforts in both TC research and operational community.  However, how to measure predictive skill for TC predictions is still an open question that causes confusion at times.  This study explores the predictability of TC intensity in numerical models.  A particular focus of this talk will be on how scale-dependent error growth leading to forecast uncertainty and limiting forecast skill.

Thursday, 20 June 2013, 3:30 PM
Refreshments 3:15 PM
NCAR-Foothills Laboratory
3450 Mitchell Lane
Bldg 2 Small Seminar Room 1001

About the presenter
Shuyi S. Chen

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Start date and time: 
Thursday, June 20, 2013 - 3:30pm