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The Advanced Study Program 2013 Seminar Series continues with a seminar presented by Ryan Torn of SUNY-Albany
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the deadliest and costliest natural disasters on Earth. It is important to provide accurate predictions of these systems because missing a system can lead to loss of life and property, while over-warning can lead to significant economic disruption and apathy toward future warnings. Numerical model forecasts, which are extensively used in the prediction of TC track and intensity, are characterized by errors resulting from both initial conditions and model formulation, thus it is important to understand where these errors are coming from and how they evolve with time. This talk will discuss how one can use multiple realization s of the same forecast, or an ensemble of forecasts, to diagnose the source and growth of errors in TCs. The first half of the seminar will focus on the factors that lead to the high variability in Hurricane Sandy's track forecast 5 days prior to landfall, while the second half will look at the growth of intensity errors related to uncertainty in the atmosphere and ocean.