Climate Projections over North America in the Coming Decades: Uncertainty due to Natural Variability

Future climate change at local and regional scales will result from a combination of human and natural factors. In this talk, I show that unpredictable, internally-generated climate fluctuations make a substantial contribution to climate trends projected for the next fifty years over North America. My results are based on large ensembles of climate change integrations with two state-of-the-art coupled climate models. I will also show that the large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of the diversity in climate change projections across the individual ensemble members. I conclude by discussing some implications of the results for model validation, inter-model comparisons, and interpretation of observed climate trends.

Building:

Room Number: 
Main Seminar Room

Type of event:

Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
No
Calendar timing: 
Tuesday, March 12, 2013 - 3:30pm