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RAL Seminar Series Wednesday, March 6, 2013 FL 2 - Room 1022 - 3:30pm
Dr. Jan Kleissl Assistant Professor, Environmental Engineering University of California, San Diego http://maeresearch.ucsd.edu/kleissl/
Title: Solar Forecasting: Sky Imagery and Marine Layer Forecasting with WRF
Most operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models consistently over-predict irradiance along the California coast, especially during the summer months. Since this region represents significant capacity and potential for distributed photovoltaic generation, accurate solar forecasts are critical. To improve forecast accuracy, a high-resolution, direct-cloud-assimilating NWP based on the Weather and Research Forecasting model (WRF-CLDDA) was developed and implemented at the University of California, San Diego (UCSD). Using satellite imagery, clouds are directly assimilated into the initial conditions resulting in hour-ahead and day-ahead improvements in forecast accuracy. Multi-model ensembles have been constructed and the sensitivity of cloud cover to different model parameters has been evaluated.
A whole-sky imager hardware and forecast algorithm have been developed at UCSD. The forecast method and a month of validation data will be presented and applications for 15 minutes-ahead forecasting in Puerto Rico will be discussed.