Staff Notes Daily Announcements

The UCAR Community Art Program cordially invites you to an art reception for photographer Matt Angiono. The reception is Sunday March 26th from 2:00 to 5:00 pm in the NCAR Mesa Lab cafeteria, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder. Come meet the artist and be inspired by his beautiful artwork!

Thank You!

Audrey Lewis

Posted by Audrey Lewis at ext. 2570, alewis@ucar.edu

Thursday, March 23, 2017 to Friday, March 24, 2017

Building inspections are approaching!  Once again special clean­out services will be available to staff for 3 weeks prior to each building inspection.  This collaborative effort is a unique opportunity to easily and conveniently clear out what you no longer need. Conveniently purge, recycle, archive and safely discard sensitive material.

Find the specifics of these events from the building inspection website: https://www2.fin.ucar.edu/fms/2017-building-inspections-spring-clean

Inspection Schedule

April 13th:    RAF

May 11th:    FL1, 2, 3

June 8th:    FLA, 0, 4

July 13th:    Center Green

August 10th:    Mesa Lab

For more information, contact Susannah Martinez at ext. 8583, sgenty@ucar.edu

Additional information available at: Building Inspections 2017

Posted by Bob Wiley at ext. 8554, rwiley@ucar.edu

Thursday, March 23, 2017 to Friday, March 31, 2017

Revisiting the Parametrization Problem
Hannah Christensen, NCAR/CGD

Parametrization schemes have traditionally been formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale motion is calculated and used to predict the evolution of the large-scale flow. Over the last decade, an alternative paradigm has developed: the use of stochastic parametrization schemes. In this talk I will discuss the motivation behind stochastic schemes, as well as highlight the variety of approaches that have been proposed for a range of physical processes. However, despite the exciting developments in such physically-motivated schemes, many operational weather forecasting centers use a comparatively basic approach. I discuss why this might be the case, and reflect on the pros and cons of these operational schemes.

Finally, I turn my attention to the use of stochastic parametrizations in climate models. I will discuss experiments in CCSM and EC-Earth that demonstrate the potential for improving climate simulations by using stochastic parametrization schemes. I conclude by discussing the potential for using stochastic schemes to represent model uncertainty in ensembles of climate simulations, in a comparable way to existing perturbed parameter or multi-model approaches.

A final remark: CMIP6 will include the first integrations from a climate model with a stochastic parametrization scheme – perhaps by CMIP7, other models will have followed suit!

Tuesday, 28 March 2017
11:00 AM, refreshments at 10:45
Mesa Lab, Main Seminar Room

Posted by Gaylynn Potemkin at ext. 1618, potemkin@ucar.edu

Thursday, March 23, 2017 to Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Wildfire: Future Synchronicity and Impact on Management Decision Making
Alison Cullen and Linda Mearns

A growing research base supports the assessment of increases in frequency, extent, intensity and impact of very large wildfire (VLWF) events in the US, and increases in the length of the fire season, with a changing climate.   Meanwhile, little research considers potential increases in the synchronicity of very large wildfires; however such simultaneous occurrences could be expected to introduce scarcity and strain within systems for allocating fire suppression resources, equipment and personnel.  And in fact, in the 2015 fire season observable strain occurred in the western US.  We have been developing a research plan to consider decisions related to positioning and mobility of fire fighting equipment and personnel with the twin goals of estimating the probability of exceeding available capacity and of estimating the value of improved information about climate conditions and fire potential for these positioning and allocation decisions into the future.  In this work in progress seminar we will outline our plans for estimating the likelihood and impact of one or multiple VLWF events, using NA-CORDEX (www.na-cordex.org) future climate simulations and subsequent simulation of fire potential under these future conditions, for the entire 21st century.

We will further describe the possible impact of new fire potential information for fire risk management and decision making.  We are developing an approach for identifying key thresholds for simultaneity and key triggers for exceeding available fire management resource capacity.  Research questions of interest include: at what breakpoint would the resource system be irretrievably ‘broken’ or overwhelmed due to too many large simultaneous fires? Under such conditions how would decisions be made to allow some of the VLWFs to not be suppressed even under conditions of likely damage and/or loss of life? What is the value and capability of improved climate and fire metric information incorporated in pre-season planning to minimize the chance of hitting such breakpoints?  How does this information value trade off against the value of purchasing additional equipment and personnel capacity in advance of the season?  And alternatively what decision protocols could adaptively manage fire risk during the fire season by movement of equipment and personnel on the fly?

Wednesday, March 29
12 - 1 p.m. (Bring your lunch)
Mesa Lab, Damon Room


Posted by Michelle Patton at ext. 1253, mpatton@ucar.edu

Thursday, March 23, 2017 to Wednesday, March 29, 2017

NCAR and UCAR join American Meteorological Society colleagues and those in the broader meteorological community in mourning the passing of AMS President Matthew J. Parker, who died on March 15. (Read more here.)

Posted by Jeff Smith at ext. 2679, jeffs@ucar.edu

Wednesday, March 22, 2017 to Tuesday, March 28, 2017

Uncertainty Quantification in Data-Poor Spatial Averaging: An Update to the NASA GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP)
Authors: Nathan Lenssen, Reto Ruedy, Gavin Schmidt
Presented by Nathan Lenssen

The Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis of global surface temperature change is one of the most publicized climate data products, aimed at quantifying the observed extent of climate change. However, global temperature estimates are interpolated from weather stations which are sparsely distributed, especially in remote regions where temperature increases may be the largest. We propose an improved method for quantifying the error in spatial averaging that arises from incomplete spatial coverage of weather stations. In tandem, we compare our global temperature and uncertainty estimates with the established NCDC and HadCRU analyses as well as the newer Berkeley Earth method. 

Friday, April 14: Noon to 1 p.m. (Bring your lunch)
Mesa Lab, Chapman Room

 

Posted by Michelle Patton at ext. 1253, mpatton@ucar.edu

Tuesday, March 21, 2017 to Friday, April 14, 2017

UCAR's Event Services is a self-funded, in-house service to our employees and visitors, and is committed to offering a high quality, diverse, and reasonably priced cafeteria menu at each of our three Boulder campuses. We make every effort to procure goods and services from our suppliers in the most cost effective manner possible, while keeping our menu prices affordable. After conducting an analysis of the food costs based on industry standards, it is now necessary to implement a price increase due to the steadily rising food and supply costs. We last raised cafeteria menu prices in 2012 and as a result the increase in April is higher than we would like. Our ongoing commitment to you (our customers) is to monitor food costs regularly with the intention to publish any increase in prices in a timely manner.

Effective April 3, there will be a price increase of between 16% and 18% on most menu items.

Event Services will continue to offer a variety of food and beverage choices, as well as provide a pleasant experience to our valued customers. Thank you for your continued pratronage and support. If you have any suggestions, questions, or comments, please contact Mike Albright at x1147.

Posted by Mike Albright at ext. 1147, michaela@ucar.edu

Tuesday, March 21, 2017 to Friday, March 24, 2017

These new acquisitions will be displayed at each NCAR Library location for one week, first at FL Library and then at ML Library. If you have questions regarding the items or want to suggest additions to the library collection, please contact the NCAR Library at ncarref@ucar.edu or ext. 8505.

Mathematical Methods for Physicists, 7th Edition
Editors: Arfken, Weber and Harris
Publisher: Elsevier
Location: FL Library
Call Number: QA 37.3 .A74 2013

Writing Scientific Papers in English Successfully
Editor: Ethel Schuster
Publisher: University of Sao Paulo
Location: FL Library
Call Number: T 11 .W74 2014

The Certified Software Quality Engineer Handbook
Author: Linda Westfall
Publisher: ASQ Quality Press
Location: FL Library
Call Number: QA 76.3 .W466 2009

Nanotechnology, The Brain, and the Future
Editors: Hays, Robert, Miller, Bennett
Publisher: Springer
Location: FL Library
Call Number: T 174.7 .N34558 2013

Handbook of Numerical Methods for Hyperbolic Problems
Editors: Abgrall and Shu
Publisher: Elsevier
Location: FL Library
Call Number: QA 297 .H287 2017 V.18

Posted by NCAR Library at ext. 8505, ncarref@ucar.edu

Tuesday, March 21, 2017 to Monday, March 27, 2017

Date/Location: April 18-20, 2017 at NCWCP in College Park, MD (NCEP Conference Center)

NOAA’s vision for the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) Modeling Community is to engage with the public, private and academic sectors to seize an unprecedented opportunity to develop and advance a world-class operational modeling system that is unified across time and space scales. Anchored by NOAA’s FV3-based operational forecast system, the community will work together to improve operational environmental forecast guidance and enable and empower the research community.

Through two back-to-back workshops, NOAA seeks to engage with the community to form and shape the community, and to consider how to best execute shared infrastructure, support, management, and governance.  Other topics to be addressed include identifying “best practices”, discussing how community-based unified modeling system will actually work, and to evolve and coordinate between SIP/NGGPS Working Groups.

These workshops are one step in an open and transparent process of ongoing engagement, and is an important vehicle for NOAA to listen to the community regarding how it wants to engage. Outcomes include timely sharing of vital information (e.g. how people can plug in and contribute, timelines and status, etc.), generating a greater sense of community and mutual trust, and for NOAA, tapping the wisdom of the community. Output from the workshops will help NOAA to plan and establish the NOAA Modeling Community and to refine and improve its Strategic Implementation Plan for the FV3 model.

For more information: https://www.ral.ucar.edu/events/2017/community-modeling-workshop

Posted by Jeff Smith at ext. 2679, jeffs@ucar.edu

Tuesday, March 21, 2017 to Tuesday, March 28, 2017
AGU’s Sharing Science program, in conjunction with AGU’s Public Information Office, will hold a webinar for scientists on how to effectively share their research with the media on Thursday March 23 from 2 to 3 p.m. ET (12-1 MT)
 
During the webinar, AGU staff will discuss how communicating with the media is different from communicating with scientists, how to determine if research is newsworthy, how to prepare for interviews, common pitfalls when working with the media and other topics. There will also be ample time for questions.
 
You do not need to be an AGU member to participate in this webinar, but advanced registration is required. Scientists can register here.

Posted by Jeff Smith at ext. 2679, jeffs@ucar.edu

Monday, March 20, 2017 to Thursday, March 23, 2017

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