Title: Building the Next-Generation of Model-Based Solar Cycle Predictions
The solar cycle plays a determinant role at shaping the solar magnetic field, defining the conditions of the interplanetary environment, and driving changes in the Earth's atmosphere and magnetosphere. Because of this, solar cycle prediction has become one of the main practical goals of solar physics. Traditionally, cycle prediction has been performed using the mathematical properties of historical data (extrapolation methods), and/or hunting for observables that correlate with the characteristics of the following cycle (precursor methods). As a new promising development, the solar minimum of cycle 23 saw the debut of predictions based on the assimilation of solar observations into dynamo models (although with highly varying results). In this talk we will discuss the relative performance of model-based cycle predictions (compared with other forms of prediction), what caused them to yield such varying results (and what this tell us about the solar dynamo), and a the arrival of a new generation of models that allow us to better understand the relationship between the surface and internal magnetic fields, and that are better suited for cycle prediction.
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