Staff Notes Daily Announcements

A Beginners Introduction to the Analog Ensemble Technique


Have you heard about the Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique? Would you like to learn more about the technique and its evolution? Want to learn its possible applications and the current state-of-the-art research being conducted using this technique? Then come for a beginners adventure into the AnEn technique brought to you by the Warner Internship for Scientific Enrichment (WISE) Program!

 The Analog Ensemble (AnEn) technique was developed to generate a probability distribution function (PDF) of an expected outcome from a current deterministic forecast and corresponding sets of historical forecasts and verifying observations. The technique has implications in physical science subject areas where: 1) single deterministic predictions, past predictions, and their corresponding observations are available; 2) it is necessary to have quantifiable and justifiable measures of uncertainty; and 3) computational resources are precious.  The AnEn technique provides an alternative option for generating probabilistic forecasts without requiring the computational expense of a NWP ensemble thus allowing scientists to choose between the tradeoff of higher resolution modeling or ensemble modeling at a coarser resolution. The AnEn improves short-term weather prediction accuracy, decreases real-time computational costs, and provides spatial and temporal uncertainty estimation (Delle Monache et al. 2011; Delle Monache et al. 2013; Alessasndrini et al. 2015; Zhang et al. 2015).  Applications of the technique include but are not limited to: a range of weather parameters (e.g., 10-m and 80-m wind speed, 2-m temperature, relative humidity) solar power forecasting, wind power forecasting, air quality forecasting, tropical cyclone predictions, and downscaling of parameters as wind speed and precipitation.  

Tuesday, July 25, 2017 1:00PM-2:00PM FL2-1001

Posted by Jessa Johnson at ext. 2751,

Thursday, July 20, 2017 to Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Join a cohort of your colleagues from across NCAR|UCAR to share, learn, and talk about topics related to diversity, equity, and inclusion. This 4-part training series is an introduction to the ways in which various identities can affect our experiences in society and the workplace. Together we will explore different aspects of our own identities, hear the background and lived experiences of people with different gender identities and from different races. We’ll learn how to identify problematic and potentially hurtful interactions as they occur, and learn practical tools for intervening. Each session will focus on a different topic, with some required pre-readings and videos (about 2-3 hours). The sessions will involve reflection on the pre-readings, hands-on activities to explore further, and shared discussions to learn from each other’s perspectives. Check your calendars, sign up now! 

To sign up please go to the Connect Website. Once you log in, click on the EOD calendar and registration link, search for “UNEION)”. You must register for ALL FOUR sessions in order to participate- the sessions are under the general title UNEION, be sure to register for the courses with the PRO144, PRO145, PRO146, and PRO147 in the titles. All sessions will be held from 3:00pm to 5:00pm on August 8, September 12, October 17, and November 7.

For more information please visit the UNEION page on the Office of Diversity and Inclusion website or contact Kristen Luna Aponte (  

Target Audience:

Open to all NCAR|UCAR employees (who have not already completed UNEION 101) interested in learning more about diversity, equity and inclusion, and who are willing to approach these topics with an open mind, and a willingness to be challenged and consider alternative viewpoints. Attendance at all four sessions is mandatory, as the sessions build on each other, and you will be part of a cohort learning group. Please DO NOT sign up if you are unable to attend ALL FOUR sessions. Please note dates, times, and locations for all the sessions.

Posted by Kristen Luna Aponte at ext. 1657,

Thursday, July 20, 2017 to Tuesday, August 1, 2017

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – The Wyoming National Guard is opening its doors to the public July 26, at the 153rd Airlift Wing, 217 Dell Range Blvd., in Cheyenne, Wyoming from 10:45 am - 3:00 pm.

National Science Foundation (NSF) supported atmospheric science research facilities will also be present at the Wyoming National Guard Open House this year and will include the NSF/NCAR C-130, the Center for Severe Weather Research (CSWR) Doppler on Wheels (DOW), and the University of Wyoming (UW) King Air. These facilities are used to research a wide range of atmospheric phenomena from severe weather to drought to air quality.

Tours of the facilities and weather balloon launches will be held throughout the day.

The National Science Foundation (NSF) makes significant investments in the atmospheric sciences to address a wide variety of atmospheric phenomena ranging from severe weather to air quality. By improving our understanding of the atmosphere and our ability to predict storms, droughts, wildfires, and even the small-scale movements of air that can influence the energy produced by wind turbines, this research makes our country more resilient and safer as we are better prepared to assess and respond to our future needs.

Funding from the NSF enables the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the University of Wyoming (UW), and the Center for Severe Weather Research (CSWR) to manage and operate a variety of research equipment used to collect the data needed to study the atmosphere.

For more information visit

Additionally, you're invited to join the NCAR Wyoming Supercomputing Center (NWSC) Open Hosue event on Saturday, 12 August. Family-friendly, hands-on activities for all ages will take place from 11:00 - 3:00 pm. 

Posted by Alison Rockwell at ext. 8758,

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 to Wednesday, July 26, 2017

Reminder: Confluence (Wiki) Authentication Change to CIT Password

On July 21 2017 at  5:00 PM Mountain/Standard Time, Confluence (Wiki) authentication will be changed to use CIT passwords.

How this change affects staff:

NCAR/UCAR/UCP staff will log in to Confluence with their CIT username and password.

How this change affects external collaborators:

  • Your account will be migrated if you have either created content or logged in since

January 2015. Additional steps will be required to activate your account. See below.

  • All other collaborator accounts will not be migrated. If you find you need access in the future, please contact the project sponsor and they will facilitate the process for getting you an updated account.

Instructions to activate your migrated account and log in to Confluence:

  1. You will receive an email with contact information for activating your account.

  2. Call the phone number listed in the email and they will walk you through the process.

  3. You will need to have access to your computer while calling the number.

  4. You will be required to verify your identification by completing a couple of steps.

  5. You will be given a new username and a temporary password.

  6. You will then be provided instructions and access to the CIT Password Portal.

  7. Enroll in the CIT Password Portal which gives you self-service ability to reset your own password or unlock your account. Enrollment is simple–you’ll set up three security questions and answers to verify your identity when accessing the portal.  


This is another step in the Identity and Access Management (IAM) project to require fewer passwords, reduce staff frustration with entering multiple passwords over the course of a day’s work, and enable easier collaboration with partner organizations.

For questions or concerns, please email or call 307-996-4300.

Posted by Gail Rutledge at ext. 1267,

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 to Thursday, July 20, 2017

Reminder: Confluence (Wiki) Upgrade
On Saturday July 22nd, will be undergoing a major upgrade.  When the upgrade is complete there will be a number of noticeable changes.

Due to choices made by the vendor and a change in application packaging, we no longer have the ability to globally override the default autowatch functionality introduced into Confluence several years ago.  This means that by default all users will have the autowatch functionality enabled.  This functionality will result in an email being sent to you every time a page you have created, edited, or commented on has been updated.  It is expected that very few users actually want this.

It is recommended that users disable autowatch ahead of the upgrade, preventing them from seeing these increased emails:  

Disabling Autowatch:

  1. Choose your profile picture at top right of the screen, then choose Settings

  2. Choose Email on the left sidebar

  3. Choose Edit

  4. Make sure Autowatch is unchecked.  Review the other email options as well.

  5. Choose Submit

Information on other changes can be found at:

Posted by Gail Rutledge at ext. 1267,

Wednesday, July 19, 2017 to Thursday, July 20, 2017

ACOM Seminar

Title: New Sensors for large-scale air quality monitoring

Speaker: Suresh Dhaniyala, Bayard D. Clarkson Distinguished Professor of Mechanical and Aeronautical Engineering, Clarkson University

Abstract: An important air quality parameter, from a human health perspective, is the mass concentration of particles smaller than 2.5μm, i.e. PM2.5.  The importance of this air quality parameter for human health was first established from a series of epidemiological studies in the US and Europe in 1990s and subsequently ,PM2.5 has become globally accepted as one of the critical measures of air pollution. Conventional PM2.5 monitoring by national agencies has been based on techniques focused on accuracy of mass measurements rather than convenience of deployment. With the need for high temporal- and spatial-resolution of air quality data for health effect studies, newer measurement technologies are increasingly being explored and deployed.

In this talk, I will provide an overview of the currently available low-cost monitoring technologies and their advantages and limitations. I will then introduce our efforts to develop a new low-cost aerosol monitoring instrument based on electrical-mobility technique for real-time monitoring of particle size, number ,and mass concentrations over abroad diameter range of 10 nm to 2.5 μm. The combination of existing and emerging low-cost monitoring sensors will help improve our understanding of health effects of aerosol particles and result in the evolution of more locally-appropriate air quality parameters.

Monday, July 24, 2017, 3:30p.m.
NCAR Foothills Laboratory
3450 Mitchell Lane,  Boulder, CO 80301
FL2-1022, Large Auditorium
Live webcast:

Posted by Bonnie Slagel at ext. 8318,

Tuesday, July 18, 2017 to Tuesday, July 25, 2017

The triennial IUFRO conference on the effect of wind and trees will take place at the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) Mesa Laboratory in Boulder, Colorado, from 17 July to 20 July 2017 

This conference encourages scientists from all backgrounds with an interest in the interaction between wind and trees. The broad theme of the conference targets understanding the interaction of the wind on trees at scales ranging from the leaf to entire forests and forested landscapes. We are interested in how trees adapt to wind, how they acclimate during their lives, and the physical mechanisms of wind damage. Presentations discussing the atmospheric processes producing damaging near-surface winds and climatological controls on their likelihood are also encouraged.  We are keenly interested in the impact of forest disturbance on carbon budgets and ecosystem functioning in forests and management strategies to mitigate the impact of damage in all types of forestry.   

Posted by Kris Marwitz at ext. 8198,

Monday, July 17, 2017 to Thursday, July 20, 2017

Posted by Annette Lampert at ext. 8719,

Monday, July 17, 2017 to Friday, July 28, 2017

“Toy” Model of Convective Dynamics for Testing Data Assimilation Methodologies

Jun-Ichi Yano
CNRM, Météo France, Toulouse

The purpose of this talk is to propose a "toy" model for testing various data assimilation methodologies for convective-scale predictions.

All the major numerical weather prediction (NWP) centers are now running their regional model with horizontal resolutions that marginally resolve individual convective elements. 

Under this new NWP regime, new assimilation strategies are required due to highly transient nature of the atmospheric convective system with much shorter prediction time scale.

The traditional approaches for testing a new assimilation methodology in the preliminary phase is to use a series of Lorenz models (1963, 1982), that qualitatively represent the basic behavior of the synoptic-scale flows.

However, for the convective-scale NWP, these are no longer optimal models for testing, but a new type of "toy" model is required that represents the convection dynamics better.

This talk suggests that the convective energy-cycle system that I have been working on with R. S. Plant serves for this purpose by adding a spatial dependency to its original formulation. 

Wednesday, August 2nd, 2017
12:00pm – 1:00pm
Mesa Lab, 680 - Penthouse
(Bring your lunch)

Posted by Michelle Patton at ext. 1253,

Wednesday, July 12, 2017 to Wednesday, August 2, 2017

A free seminar series presented by the Pre-Retirement Planning Institute, Inc., a non-profit organization specializing in financial planning and pre-retirement counseling services will begin on August 4. Combining elements of both financial planning and pre-retirement planning, the series is offered in five, mini-session modules. Participants can choose to attend one or all sessions depending on interest.  At the end of each session module, participants may request to schedule private, consultation services with the certified financial professionals (paid by participants).  Employee spouses/partners are welcome and encouraged to attend.  Each module session requires a minimum of 10 participants.

To enroll, access the Connect Employee Self-Service Web site using the link below, click on the "EOD Training Catalog" link.  To see all of these sessions at once, "Select Course Type" as "Informational" and click "Display".


UCAR Benefits, TIAA Retirement Planning Resources
August 4, 2017
12:00-2:00 pm MST
FL2 – 1001 or Webcast
Overview - Learn about UCAR's retirement benefits including the TIAA retirement program and how to maximize their value. 

Empowerment of Income Protection Planning & Social Security
August 11, 2017
12:00-2:00 pm MST and Webcast
Overview – During the first part of this session, you will learn whether your family and income is properly protected and empowered.  Also learn about Social Security Benefits.

Financial Planning & Investments
August 18, 2017
12:00-2:00 pm MST (no Webcast due to state licensing issues)
Overview - Discover the benefits of financial planning and different types of investment options

Medicare Basics
August 25, 2017
12:00-2:00 pm MST and Webcast
CG1 – Room 2126
Overview - Gain a better understanding of Medicare, what is and isn't covered, how to register, and review various plan options.

Estate Planning and Housing/Transitions
September 1, 2017
12:00-2:00 pm MST and Webcast
Overview - Learn key elements of Estate Planning and what to expect in the work-to-retirement transition

Connect Employee Self-Service Website - EOD Catalog

Posted by Laurie Carr at ext. 8702,

Monday, July 10, 2017 to Friday, July 21, 2017