July 4 - evening closure - NCAR Mesa Lab and road more info>
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The Mesa Lab will close to the public on July 4th at 4 p.m. The road is closed to vehicle traffic beginning at 4 p.m. Pedestrians and cyclists may continue to use the road until 7 p.m. Security will patrol the parking lot at 7 p.m. and ask remaining visitors to leave the premises.
To avoid attracting bears to the NCAR property, no food or beverages, other than water, may be prepared or consumed in the parking lot or on trails.
Employees requiring access to work at the Mesa Lab will be allowed up the road after 4 p.m. with their UCAR identification.
Security will have increased patrols during the day and will post an officer at the bottom of the NCAR road starting at noon to make sure everyone is aware of the 4 p.m. closure.
There is signage at the bottom of the NCAR road announcing the July 4th closure. The road will re-open for normal use on Sunday, July 5, at 6 a.m.
Date: 13 July 2015
Joanne Lo1, Montserrat Fuentes1, Elizabeth Mannshardt1
1Department of Statistics, North Carolina State University,2US Environmental Protection Agency
The 2014 Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change (IPCC) reports statistically signif- icant increasing trends in heavy precipitation events over many areas of the globe. Extreme value methods can be applied in modeling the tail of the distribution to assess the behavior of such rare events. Due to limited data, an intrinsic problem with extremes is the high vari- ability for extrapolation. One way to reduce variability of the estimates is to borrow strength across locations. Existing methods in spatial extremes show that incorporating spatial meth- ods improves estimates by increasing precision. However, the increase in model complexity leads to computational cost and intractable forms for high dimensionality. To capitalize on the spatial information in surrounding sites, we propose methods to incorporate neighboring observations in a Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) model framework while preserving the Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) marginals at each location. Using this approach the model gains strength from additional data, computational costs can be reduced, and a tractable solu- tion derived. We apply our model to 12 years of precipitation data focusing on the North-East region of the U.S.
For more information, contact Eric Gilleland at ext. 2849, firstname.lastname@example.org
Join us for a summer, all-staff party on Friday, July 17th at 3:00 CG1 patio! Appetizers and drinks will be served. Bring your families and take some time to relax with your colleagues!
Please plan to attend!
Let's call it a day on Friday July 17, 3:00 pm at CG1!
For many years, the front desk staff at FL2, CG1, and ML have provided banking services to employees. These services were provided as a convenience before ATM machines and online services were widely available. The campus front desk staff will no longer cash employee personal checks effective today, July 1, 2015.
With this change, UCAR would like to offer the sale of stamps at a 20% discount for a limited time at all locations. A list of stamps, the current inventory, and their sale prices is located at the link below.
The front desk staff will continue to offer workshop per diem check cashing for visitors and petty cash will continue to be processed until further notice. It is recommended that the check request form be sent to the finance department for cash reimbursements instead.
We appreciate your cooperation in helping us implement this cost-saving measure.
For more information, contact Melissa Miller at ext. 8575, email@example.com
With the changes to the front desk bank services, we have updated the Access Card Form. Please begin using the new form immediately. The form can be found here
There were 20 articles by NCAR/UCAR staff recently added to OpenSky and published between June 1 and June 15, 2015:
Ballinger, A.P., T.M. Merlis, I.M. Held, and M. Zhao, 2015: The sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to off-equatorial thermal forcing in aquaplanet simulations. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72, 2286-2302, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0284.1 | Opensky
Byun, U.-Y., J. Hong, S.-Y. Hong, and H.H. Shin, 2015: Numerical simulations of heavy rainfall over central Korea on 21 September 2010 using the WRF model. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 32, 855-869, DOI: 10.1007/s00376-014-4075-6 | Opensky
Clark, A.J., M.C. Coniglio, B.E. Coffer, G. Thompson, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2015: Sensitivity of 24-h forecast dryline position and structure to boundary layer parameterizations in convection-allowing WRF model simulations. Weather and Forecasting, 30, 613-638, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00078.1 | Opensky
Grabowski, W.W., 2015: Untangling microphysical impacts on deep convection applying a novel modeling methodology. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72, 2446-2464, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0307.1 | Opensky
He, H., X. Tie, Q. Zhang, X. Liu, Q. Gao, X. Li, and Y. Gao, 2015: Analysis of the causes of heavy aerosol pollution in Beijing, China: A case study with the WRF-Chem model. Particuology: Science and Technology of Particles, 20, 32-40, DOI: 10.1016/j.partic.2014.06.004 | Opensky
Horst, T.W., S.R. Semmer, and G. Maclean, 2015: Correction of a non-orthogonal, three-component sonic anemometer for flow distortion by transducer shadowing. Boundary-Layer Meteorology, 155, 371-395, DOI: 10.1007/s10546-015-0010-3 | Opensky
Hsiao, L.-F., X.-Y. Huang, Y.H. Kuo, D.-S. Chen, H. Wang, C.-C. Tsai, T.-C. Yeh, J.-S. Hong, C.-T. Fong, and C.-S. Lee, 2015: Blending of global and regional analyses with a spatial filter: Application to typhoon prediction over the western North Pacific Ocean. Weather and Forecasting, 30, 754-770, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-14-00047.1 | Opensky
Krishnamurthy, L., G.A. Vecchi, R. M'sadek, A. Wittenberg, T.L. Delworth, and F. Zeng, 2015: The seasonality of the Great Plains low-level jet and ENSO relationship. Journal of Climate, 28, 4525-4544, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00590.1 | Opensky
Lawson, R.P., S. Woods, and H. Morrison, 2015: The microphysics of ice and precipitation development in tropical cumulus clouds. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 72, 2429-2445, DOI: 10.1175/JAS-D-14-0274.1 | Opensky
Morrison, H., A. Morales, and C. Villanueva-Birriel, 2015: Concurrent sensitivities of an idealized deep convective storm to parameterization of microphysics, horizontal grid resolution, and environmental static stability. Monthly Weather Review, 143, 2082-2104, DOI: 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00271.1 | Opensky
Schrijver, C.J., K. Kauristie, A.D. Aylward, C.M. Denardini, S. Gibson, A. Glover, N. Gopalswamy, M. Grande, M. Hapgood, D. Heynderickx, N. Jakowski, V.V. Kalegaev, G. Lapenta, J.A. Linker, S. Liu, C.H. Mandrini, I.R. Mann, T. Nagatsuma, D. Nandy, T. Obara, T.P. O'Brien, T. Onsager, H.J. Opgenoorth, M. Terkildsen, C.E. Valladares, and N. Vilmer, 2015: Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS. Advances in Space Research, 55, 2745-2807, DOI: 10.1016/j.asr.2015.03.023 | Opensky
Wang, J., C. Liang, and M.S. Miesch, 2015: A compressible high-order unstructured spectral difference code for stratified convection in rotating spherical shells. Journal of Computational Physics, 290, 90-111, DOI: 10.1016/j.jcp.2015.02.047 | Opensky
Wieder, W., C.C. Cleveland, W.K. Smith, and K. Todd-Brown, 2015: Future productivity and carbon storage limited by terrestrial nutrient availability. Nature Geoscience, 8, 441-444, DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2413 | Opensky
Zhao, T., and A. Dai, 2015: The magnitude and causes of global drought changes in the twenty-first century under a low-moderate emissions scenario. Journal of Climate, 28, 4490-4512, DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00363.1 | Opensky
Zhou, W., X. Tie, G. Zhou, and P. Liang, 2015: Possible effects of climate change of wind on aerosol variation during winter in Shanghai, China. Particuology: Science and Technology of Particles, 20, 80-88, DOI: 10.1016/j.partic.2014.08.008 | Opensky
For more information, contact Michael Flanagan at ext. 1180, firstname.lastname@example.org
Speaker: Michael Scheuerer
Date: July 22, 2015
Place: FL 2 – Rm 1001
Title: Statistical Post-Processing of GEFS Ensemble Forecasts
for Precipitation Accumulations
Authors: Michael Scheuerer and Thomas M. Hamill
We present and compare two different methods for statistical post-processing of ensemble precipitation forecasts which are developed and demonstrated with GEFS precipitation reforecasts over the conterminous United States and verified against an 1/8-degree climatology-calibrated precipitation analyses.
The first approach is non-parametric and forms, for each location, an new ensemble from the analyzed precipitation amounts by identifying dates in the past that had reforecasts similar to today’s forecast. A variant of this method is presented that augments the data at each location by finding supplemental locations with similar characteristics (climatology, terrain, etc.). The resulting increase of training data will be shown to be particularly beneficial for the probabilistic prediction of rare events.
As a second approach we consider a parametric method that generates full predictive probability distributions for precipitation accumulations by fitting shifted, left-censored gamma distributions to statistics of the raw ensemble forecasts. This distribution type is shown to be adequate for modeling the distribution of analyzed precipitation accumulations given the ensemble forecasts both in situations with good predictability (e.g. at short lead times) and decreased predictability (e.g. at longer lead times or during summer months).
Probabilistic forecasts by both methods will be verified using common metrics (skill, reliability, and so forth). We study how the different ensemble statistics and non-linear components in the parametric approach contribute to its performance, and we discuss, for both methods, the effect of training sample size on the reliability and resolution of the post-processed predictions.
Michael Scheuerer is a Research Scientist at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences (CIRES) at CU Boulder and the Earth System Research Laboratory of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He received his graduate degree in mathematics from Bayreuth University, Germany, and his Ph.D. in mathematical statistics from Göttingen University, Germany. His research focuses on probabilistic weather forecasting with emphasis on statistical calibration of ensemble weather predictions. In addition, he is developing methods for the evaluation of forecast performance
This seminar will be available to view via webcast;
UCAR Connect Link & Recorded
At its meeting on May 12–14 in Washington, D.C., the UCAR Board of Trustees appointed six new NCAR Senior Scientists:
Senior scientists provide NCAR with long-term scientific leadership. The qualifications for the position are analogous to those for a full professor at a university. Selection is based on individual competence in research and activities that enhance NCAR’s interaction with scientists in the broader community.
The board also appointed Alma Hozdic (ACD) to the Scientist III level and appointed Scott Spuler (EOL) to the Research Engineer III level. more>
For more information, contact Rebecca Swisher at ext. 8609, email@example.com
The Bonfils Blood Center mobile bus will visit CG1 on Monday, July 13. The bus will be located on the north side of CG1.
Appointments are available at 10:10 and 10:20. More appointments are available between 12:20 p.m. and 1:10 p.m. The bus will be closed between 11:00 a.m. and noon.
If you would like to donate, please contact Laurie Carr to make an appointment. Please review the blood donation guidelines below.
New Hires / Departures as of Friday, June 19, 2015
Please join NETS to celebrate Judy Green and her 38 years at NCAR/UCAR. The celebration will be held Wednesday, July 8, 2015 at 3pm in the Mesa Lab Cafeteria. Food, beverages, and “Phone Themed” music provided.
NCAR/UCAR Switchboard Function will end on 7/1/15
Currently when you dial 303-497-1000 or “0” during work hours, a switchboard operator answers the phone and directs your call. Judy Green has been the voice to help many of us for the past 38 years. Recently, Judy announced that she will retire on July 6. Judy’s retirement, along with diminishing use of the switchboard services, and alternative options including a phone tree (already in existence), directories via desk phones, People DB directory, and Google contacts, means NETS will be discontinuing the switchboard function on July 1. The phone tree will include access to UCAR SciEd/Tours, Security, Report an emergency, Communications, and Human Resources. CISL management and the President's Council have reviewed and endorsed this proposal.
For questions about phone services and options, see: http://nets.ucar.edu/nets/ongoing-activities/voip/documentation/users/top-ten-faq.shtml
For questions, please email Marla Meehl at firstname.lastname@example.org
The UCAR Community Art Program proudly presents two new exhibits:
Oils on Canvas by Betsy Cole
For Betsy Cole, art is continual discovery. First, there have been trips to Bali where she discovered that art can become a kind of play, a “dance of color.” Second, there is the energy of the earth itself – the scorching sun, deep cool lakes, and expansive forests all come alive vibrantly, almost mysteriously. But, for Betsy, the most significant discovery has been that art can heal. It brings light and joy to the darkness and pain. As she began to untangle her own life, viewing it as a journey, her love of bright colors acquired a new healing purpose. Cole's work will be on exhibit in the Community Art Gallery l of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesa Lab June 1, 2015 to July 31, 2015.
Contemporary Photography by Marc Bernardi
Marc Bernardi was born with a Camera in each hand and a curious mind. This anomaly has sent him rocketing on a lifetime of adventure and every imaginable type of photography. He is now fascinated with the abstract images that he creates from quite ordinary subjects that could be found on a walk. Then he transforms them into magical, colorful delights. He finds almost everybody who looks at them drawn in for a closer look, full of questions, and absolutely fascinated…Bernardi's's work will be on exhibit in the Community Art Gallery ll of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesa Lab June 1, 2015 to July 31, 2015.
For more information, contact Audrey Lewis at ext. 2570, email@example.com
Corporate Technical Training Center
Center Green campus, Building CG-2, Room 3024
3085 Center Green Drive (CG-2)
This three-day workshop is geared towards new users of NCL. It will be taught by both a scientist and a software engineer, and offers a combination of introductory lectures and hands-on labs. During the labs, the instructors work with students to help them write NCL programs for analyzing their own data.
Students must have basic knowledge of programming in languages like Fortran, C, Python, IDL, or matlab, and must be comfortable working on a UNIX system. Guest computers with NCL already installed will be provided, but you may also bring your own laptop.
Registration is free and limited to 16 students. You may register by filling out this survey:
See the link below for more details.
For more information, contact Mary Haley at ext. 1254, firstname.lastname@example.org
August 11 - 14, 2015
3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder, Colorado
GSI & EnKF - Starting Tuesday Morning on August 11 - 14, 2015
EnKF Only - Starting Thursday Afternoon on August 13 - 14, 2015
GSI knowledge is required for the EnKF Only Session
The combined Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation and Ensemble Kalman Filter (GSI/EnKF) Community Data Assimilation System Tutorial will be offered at the NCAR Foothills Laboratory, in Boulder, Colorado on August 11-14, 2015. This will be the sixth Community GSI tutorial, but the first time EnKF will be included.
GSI is the operational data assimilation (DA) system being used by various national operational and research centers, including NOAA and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). It is traditionally a three-dimensional variational DA system and has been extended to run with advanced features, including the hybrid ensemble-variational data assimilation technique and the four dimensional EnVAR technique.
The EnKF system is a Monte-Carlo algorithm for data assimilation that uses an ensemble of short-term forecasts to estimate the background-error covariance in the Kalman Filter. The EnKF uses the observation operators in the GSI system to transform model variables to observed variables in observation space. Therefore, the types of observations available for use in the EnKF match those for the GSI. Currently this EnKF is running operationally as part of the GSI based hybrid data assimilation system for the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) global applications.
The combined GSI/EnKF Community Tutorial will be held over the four days of August 11-14. The GSI/EnKF tutorial will consist of both lectures and hands-on practical exercises. The lecturers are invited from various GSI and EnKF development/support teams including NCEP/EMC, NASA/GMAO, NOAA/GSD, NCAR/MMM and DTC. The practical sessions will provide the necessary skills to run both the GSI and EnKF systems for both basic and advanced implementations. The tutorial will be tailored to the upcoming release code (GSI and EnKF) scheduled for June, 2015
The tutorial consists of a combination of classroom lectures and a hands on practical session. We offer a choice of two registration options:
Full GSI/EnKF Tutorial (4 days): $400 (includes lunch and refreshments)
EnKF Only Tutorial (1.5 days): $130 (includes lunch and refreshments)
There will be NO refunds for cancellations made on, or after 3 PM MT on Friday July 31th, 2015. Prior to the July 31th deadline, we will refund the registration fee, less $25.00 to cover administrative costs.
To register use the link to reg-on-line (https://www.regonline.com/2015gsicommunitytutorialcopycopy) - More information can be found at the tutorial webpage (http://www.dtcenter.org/com-GSI/users/tutorials/2015.php)
If you have any questions or are unable to register please e-mail: MaryBeth Zarlingo (email@example.com)
- Due to seating limitations, the registration is limited to 40 participants.
- 31 July, 2015: Last day to register if you need a temporary account on NCAR's Yellowstone computer for the hands on practical exercises.
- Before 3 PM MT on Friday 31 July 2015, we will refund your registration fee less $25.00 to cover administrative fees.
- After 31 July 2015, there will be no refunds.
We are looking forward to your attendance!