Staff Notes Daily Announcements

TWO STUDIES OF STATISTICAL MODELING OF ENVIRONMENTAL EXTREMES

Miranda Fix
Colorado State University

In this talk, we will present two separate studies which analyze environmental extremes.

The first study uses two CESM initial condition ensembles to investigate potential changes in extreme precipitation under two climate change scenarios over the contiguous United States. We fit non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models to annual maximum daily precipitation simulated from the 30-member “Large Ensemble” under the RCP8.5 scenario and a 15-member “Medium Ensemble” under the RCP4.5 scenario. We then compare impacts using the 1% annual exceedance probability level, which is the amount of daily rainfall with only a 1% chance of being exceeded in a given year. We also investigate a pattern scaling approach in which we produce predictive GEV distributions of annual precipitation maxima under RCP4.5 given only global mean temperatures for this scenario. We compare results from this less computationally intensive method to those obtained from our GEV model fitted directly to the CESM RCP4.5 output and find that pattern scaling produces reasonable projections. This study is part of a larger project on the Benefits of Reduced Anthropogenic Climate change (BRACE).

The second study examines the sensitivities of extreme ground-level ozone to meteorological drivers (e.g. air temperature) using quantile regression and a recently-developed method based on maximizing tail dependence. We will present a case study comparing the sensitivities for observed ozone to those we find in WRF-Chem output. Preliminary results show discrepancies between the relationships between the driving meteorological variables and ozone levels between the observations and the WRF-Chem output

Wednesday, June 1, 2016
12:00-1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Chapman Room
(Bring your lunch)

For more information, contact Kathy Peczkowicz at ext. 2431, kathyp@ucar.edu

Thu, 05/26/2016

A new study finds that the future pattern of population growth, not climate change, is likely to be the dominant factor in determining whether the amount of land burned by fires increases or decreases this century. (Story by Senior Science Writer Laura Snider. Read more here.)

For more information, contact Laura Snider at ext. 8605, lsnider@ucar.edu

Tue, 05/24/2016

Cigna Employee Assistance Program (EAP) Wellness Seminars

We all face challenges in the quest to balance productive work and a satisfying personal life. Managing relationships, family issues, and good work practices can be stressful. It can be a struggle to maintain health and make good lifestyle choices!

To assist with these challenges, Cigna’s EAP offers a variety of free online seminars for UCAR employees and family members.  Live webcast seminars are offered each month along with the option to view replays of previous seminars.

How do I view the upcoming seminars?

Visit the website: http://www.media-server.com/m/go/CignaEAPWellnessSeminars

If you are a first time visitor, simply fill in the required information under the “First Time User” section and then select Submit when complete. This will promote you to the homepage of the website and you can view the calendar of seminars.

If you are a returning visitor, simply log in with the credentials that you established previously and you will promote to the homepage of the website.

How do I register for a seminar?

Upcoming Live Seminars are listed for the 2016 calendar year and can be viewed from the homepage: http://www.media-server.com/m/go/CignaEAPWellnessSeminars

Scroll over a course of your choice and select the title. This will prompt you to the description of the course and provide you the option to Register/Attend the seminar. When you select “Attend”, you will receive a confirmation email with the seminar description, date, time, etc.

To view a seminar playback, simply click on the seminar you are interested in. On-demand replays will be available starting 2 hours after the live presentation initially began.

 

CIGNA EAP LIVE Wellness Seminars in JUNE:

There are Two Cigna EAP Webcast seminars for JUNE 2016. EAP seminars are one hour in length including a Q&A at the close of each session. All webcasts take place on Wednesdays at 2pm EST.

 

Registration information, live seminars, and on-demand replays can be accessed directly at our seminar portal:

http://www.media-server.com/m/go/CignaEAPWellnessSeminars

 

June 2016 Seminars:

 

Wednesday, June 8, 2016: Unique You: Personality Styles at Work

Wednesday, June 22, 2016: Endings and Opportunities: The Power of Acceptance


For more information, contact Toni Wallace at ext. 8716, twallace@ucar.edu

For more information, contact Toni Wallace at ext. 8716, twallace@ucar.edu

Tue, 05/24/2016

Global Spatial Statistics

Jaehong Jeong
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST)

Global-scale geophysical, environmental, and climate science data sets require statistical models that explain the curvature of their spatial domain. Over the last few decades, statisticians have developed covariance models to capture their spatial and/or temporal behavior. Mathematical limitations have prevented the use of the geodesic distance, the most natural metric for measuring distance on the surface of a sphere, and instead some previous approaches have applied the Euclidean or chordal distance to approximate the covariance. However, because these approximations may result in physically unrealistic distortions on the sphere, covariance functions directly defined on the sphere using the geodesic distance are needed. We discuss the issues that arise when dealing with global-scale spherical data sets and review current geostatistical approaches. We illustrate the use of isotropic and nonstationary covariance models through deformations and geographical indicators for global surface temperature data. To assess the suitability of each method, we compare their log likelihood values and prediction score. This is a joint work with Mikyoung Jun and Marc G. Genton.

Friday, May 27, 2016
12:00-1:00 pm
Mesa Lab, Damon Room
(Bring your lunch)

For more information, contact Kathy Peczkowicz at ext. 2431, kathyp@ucar.edu

Tue, 05/24/2016

New Hires and Departures as of Friday, May 20

For more information, contact Laurie Carr at ext. 8702, lcarr@ucar.edu

Tue, 05/24/2016

Take two minutes now to register and join Team NCAR+UCAR as we compete to showcase just how much we value biking within our organization and throughout the broader community.   

NCAR+UCAR is competing in the 2016 Business Challenge against organizations all along the Front Range for the title of Bike to Work Day Champion. Last year Team NCAR+UCAR was ranked #11 out of more than a thousand participating businesses, and this year our goal is to be in the top ten! Rankings are calculated based on how many staff members register, so register with team NCAR+UCAR today and you will be leading us in our first steps (or pedals) toward victory.

By registering you are not only helping your organization succeed in this fun challenge, but you will be automatically entered to win some amazing prizes that include: bicycles, gift cards, concert and event tickets, merchandise, and much more! Last year, several NCAR+UCAR staff won prizes, including a $100.00 gift card. This year, that could be you!

Bike to Work Day is Wednesday, June 22. Don't miss out! 

For more information, contact Chelsea Castellano at ext. 8549, chelsea@ucar.edu

Mon, 05/23/2016

NCAR scientists have developed a new index that they suspect can do a better job of quantifying a hurricane's ability to cause destruction than the commonly used Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which relies solely on wind speed. The Cyclone Damage Potential index (CDP) takes into account hurricane size and forward speed along with wind speed. The result is a rating scale from 1 to 10, with 10 being the greatest potential for destruction. (Story by Senior Science Writer Laura Snider. Read more here.)

For more information, contact Laura Snider at ext. 8605, lsnider@ucar.edu

Thu, 05/19/2016
Even if you have registered yourself separately, we can still add NCAR employees to the official team list that goes towards our participation percentage. If you would like to be added, please send an email as soon as possible to Jimy Dudhia (dudhia@ucar.edu).   All are welcome; runners, joggers, and walkers. The more the better.

For more information, contact Jimy Dudhia at ext. 8950, dudhia@ucar.edu

Wed, 05/18/2016

The new My Total Rewards compensation and benefits tool is now available. My Total Rewards is an online tool that provides a comprehensive, personalized view of your compensation and benefits through UCAR.

This new tool has been developed by HR and F&A IT to share with you the value of your benefits and base salary.  Please visit the link below to view the Login Instructions to assist you with registering and setting up your login information.

The registration process includes creating a secure password, answering three of several possible security questions, and providing some personally identifiable information. Please know that Human Resources and F&A IT consulted with CISL’s Security Engineering Group to provide some security questions whose answers are less likely to be guessable. The Security Engineering Group also recommends using a different password for Total Rewards than on any other site.  Once you’ve completed the process, you will only need your username and password each time you access the tool. The security questions are only used if you happen to forget your login information.

My Total Rewards is available 24 hours a day, seven days a week from any device (including smartphones and tablets) with internet access.  The statements will be updated on the first day of each month will provide links to important sites such as Cigna, Kaiser and TIAA. You will be able to see fluctuations as you have changes in your base pay, utilize PTO or Vacation time, contribute to your retirement savings, and more.

We hope My Total Rewards helps you better understand the value of your compensation and the many benefits offered by UCAR. Check your My Total Rewards statement as often as you like.  If you have any questions, please contact hrbenefits@ucar.edu.

Click here to view the announcement in Spanish.

Login instructions:

My Total Rewards - English

My Total Rewards - Spanish

For more information, contact Laurie Carr at ext. 8702, lcarr@ucar.edu

Wed, 05/18/2016

Don't miss the opportunity to participate in the following courses that are still available in May:

View the EOD Training Calendar and Register for Courses


5/17/16:New Horizons - Excel 2013 Charts & Pivot Tables

CG2-3024-CTTC, 8:30 AM – 12:00 PM / Open to all employees

Speaker: Mykel Gurule, mykel.gurule@nhclc.com, 720-284-8208


5/17/16:Elevations CU: Good Behavior Habits

Complimentary lunch. You must register by Thursday, 5/12 to reserve your complimentary lunch.

CG1-1210-South-Auditorium, 12:00 PM – 1:00 PM / Open to all employees

Speaker: Kim Van Dyke, kim.vandyke5@gmail.com, 720-400-5289


5/18/16:MSEC: Interviewing and Hiring

CG1-1210-South-Auditorium, 1:00 PM - 4:30 PM / Open to all managers

Speaker: Laura Woods, LWoods@msec.org, 303-223-5488 




CEB Manager Success Workshop Series:

Open to all managers & aspiring managers

Times per virtual course are listed on the EOD website under the Leadership Development tab: click here to access.


Making Great Hiring Decisions -- Replay option is available on the EOD website under the Leadership Developtment tab.

May 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th


Becoming a Manager I: Making a Smooth Transition

May 16th, 17th, 18th, & 19th


Entering Middle Management: Expanding Your Influence

May 23rd, 24th, 25th, & 26th


For more information, contact Toni Wallace at ext. 8716, twallace@ucar.edu

Tue, 05/10/2016

What: Programming with models: An introduction to NIMBLE, a BUGS-compatible system for hierarchical statistical modeling using MCMC and more

When: May 27, 2016, 10:00 am – 12:00 pm

Where: ML- VisLab 

This webinar will introduce attendees to the NIMBLE system for programming with hierarchical models in R. NIMBLE (r-nimble.org) is a new system for flexible programming of algorithms that builds on the BUGS language for declaring hierarchical models. NIMBLE provides analysts with a flexible system for using MCMC, sequential MC and other techniques on user-specified models. It provides developers and methodologists with the ability to write algorithms in an R-like syntax that can be easily disseminated to users. C++ versions of models and algorithms are created for speed, but these are manipulated from R without any need for analysts or algorithm developers to program in C++. While analysts can use NIMBLE as a drop-in replacement for WinBUGS or JAGS, NIMBLE provides greatly enhanced functionality in a number of ways.  The webinar will first show how to specify a hierarchical statistical model using BUGS syntax and fit that model using MCMC. Participants will learn how to customize the MCMC for better performance and how to specify one's own statistical distributions and functions to extend the syntax of BUGS. Next the webinar will demonstrate how to use other non-MCMC algorithms to fit and models. Finally, the webinar will show how to use the system to write algorithms for use with hierarchical models, including one's own samplers for use within NIMBLE's MCMC system.

The instructor is Dr. Chris Paciorek (UC Berkeley).  Participation is free, but the number of seats is limited to 20.  To reserve a seat, please email Kathy Peczkowicz (kathyp@ucar.edu).  The format of the webinar is interactive with two-way video and audio, where the participants can ask live questions.  Each participant should bring a laptop.

For more information, contact Kathy Peczkowicz at ext. 2431, kathyp@ucar.edu

Thu, 05/05/2016

CISL is excited to announce the second course coordinated by The Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe) in the Beyond P-values series.

This three-day course, July 11-13, 2016, will provide an introduction to the theory and methods of Bayesian Statistics. Bayesian Statistics is an emergent area of Statistics applicable to many problems and especially relevant in the context of uncertainty quantification. The course will cover some simple one- and two-parameter problems to provide a flavor for the mechanics of the Bayesian approach. We will then discuss Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for making inference using more complicated (higher dimensional) models. By the end of the course the partcipants will fit and evaluate models for a dataset of atmospheric CO2 concentrations taken from ice-core measurements. We'll use the open-source statistical software R [https://www.r-project.org/] and the open-source MCMC package that works seamlessly with R called Stan [mc-stan.org/]. The format of the course is hands-on and participants will use their own laptops. 

The lead instructor for the course is Alix Gitelman, Professor of Statistics at Oregon State University. She will be assisted by Nathan Lenssen (Columbia University), Doug Nychka, Philippe Naveau and Dorit Hammerling and others. Seats are limited to 12 participants and to apply, please visit the Bayesian Statistics Application webpage. Please note that the course is only open to staff and visitors working on NCAR's Boulder, CO campuses.

For more information, contact Kathy Peczkowicz at ext. 2431, kathyp@ucar.edu

Wed, 05/04/2016

Don't forget to register for MAY courses! 

All UCAR/NCAR/UCP employees can register for FREE educational courses. There are a variety of options and the training schedules are updated regularly to help provide the most current and up to date information.


REGISTRATION DETAILS:

View the 2016 training schedule to date & REGISTER by logging into Connect: https://www.fin.ucar.edu/hrisConnect/employee

Select “EOD Training Catalog” to view and register for current offerings.


For more information, contact:

Toni Wallace, twallace@ucar.edu, 303-497-8716 

  • Class sizes vary and space is limited. Reserve your attendance as soon as possible.
  • Courses may be offered more than once, depending on the demand and participation.
  • Note: Course times & dates can change, please view the calendar via the EOD Training Catalog for the most up-to-date information!


MAY - 2016 Courses: (log into Connect and view the "EOD Training Catalog" for locations and descriptions per course)

5/05/16:      MSEC: Performance Documentation Skills

8:30 AM – 12:00 PM / Open to all managers

 

5/17/16:      New Horizons: Excel 2013 Charts & Pivot Tables

8:30 AM – 12:00 PM / Open to all employees

 

5/17/16:      Elevations CU: Good Behavior Habits

Complimentary lunch.

12:00 PM – 1:00 PM / Open to all employees

 

5/18/16:      MSEC: Interviewing and Hiring

1:00 PM - 4:30 PM / Open to all managers

 

5/19/16:      MSEC: Performance Management,

Setting the Stage for Success

9:00 AM - 12:30 PM / Open to all managers

 

5/19/16:      New Horizons:

Access 2013 Level 1: Part 1

9:00 AM – 4:00 PM / Open to all employees

 

CEB Manager Success Workshop Series:

Open to all managers & aspiring managers

Times & Registration per Virtual Coursesare listed on the

EOD website: https://eod.ucar.edu/

(Select the Leadership Development tab for more information)

 

Making Great Hiring Decisions:

May 2nd, 3rd, 4th, & 5th

 

Becoming a Manager I: Making a Smooth Transition:

May 16th, 17th, 18th, & 19th

 

Entering Middle Management: Expanding Your Influence:

May 23rd, 24th, 25th, & 26th

For more information, contact Toni Wallace at ext. 8716, m24w@msn.com

Wed, 05/04/2016

The Bolder Boulder registration of the 2016 Memorial Day 10k race has now opened, and once again UCAR/NCAR is participating in the Bolder Business Challenge

The deadline for registering as part of the BBC is April 22nd. If you've already registered for the race on your own and wish to be part of our team, please contact Jimy soon.

If you want to participate for UCAR/NCAR, you can register online via the special Bolder Business Challenge pages where you can select "NCAR" from a drop-down menu. Also the packets will be delivered to NCAR for convenient pick-up, and you will receive an NCAR back-bib to proudly display your team affiliation. Open to all. The more the better.

For more information, contact Jimy Dudhia at ext. 8950, dudhia@ucar.edu

Thu, 04/07/2016

The UCAR Community Art Program proudly presents three new exhibits:

GLASS MOSAICS BY DELCIA LITT

Delcia Litt calls her fine art mosaics “an adventure in color and glass.” She takes her contemporary style to a new dimension not typically traveled to by other mosaic artists. Each piece is one of a kind. She is passionate about utilizing many design elements to provide extraordinary affects in her glowing panels. She delights in the visually engaging elements of glass and stone. Delcia Litt has been creating works for Mountain Top Stained Glass since 1985. 

STONE MOSAICS BY SUSAN JUDY

Stone mosaicist Susan Judy shares her love of stone in a multifaceted medium.  By inlaying semi-precious gems, crystals, fossils, and quarried stone into abstract and geologic images she draws attention to the extraordinary treasures that take form within the Earth. Her background in exploration geology gives her a deeper understanding of her materials. Susan is fascinated by how they form, where they form, and how they are discovered and mined. It makes even the acquisition of the materials an exciting part of the process.

ACRYLIC PAINTING BY LORI MATTINA

Lori Mattina expresses her passion for life by experimenting with acrylics and mixed media. Musicality is the undercurrent in her work, and vibrant color the driving force. Using her subconscious as a guide, Mattina freely embraces the chaos and unpredictability of dripping, squirting, and slathering colorful paint on canvas, layer upon layer, until a narrative unfolds. Stories of wonder, beauty, and gratitude emerge - inspired by nature, travels, dreams, and a fearless imagination.

All three artists' work will be on display in the UCAR Community Art Gallery at the NCAR Mesa Lab from April 3, 2016 – May 28, 2016.

For more information, contact Audrey Lewis at ext. 2570, alewis@ucar.edu

Thu, 04/07/2016

Registration is now open for the 4th Annual Engineering for Climate Extremes Workshop (on July 14, 2016).

The attached flyer and website have more information, or you can register directly at the link below.

https://www.regonline.com/Register/Checkin.aspx?EventID=1827306

The theme of this year’s meeting is “Water-Energy-People” within a context of resilience within coupled natural and social systems.

Societal and climate change, and heterogeneous resource distribution are increasingly highlighting critical vulnerabilities within the WEP system. The interplay of economic and policy drivers with social and environmental changes and climate stresses is important but largely unexplored. The workshop will highlight knowledge gaps and focus discussion on ways that ECEP can help to improve WEP system resilience.

Abstracts are invited for “Ignite” (5-minute) and longer (15-minute) presentations. Participants are welcome from all areas involved in strengthening societal resilience to weather and climate extremes.
 
Participants include representatives from Indigenous Americans, Re/insurance, Local Government, Industry and Business, and National and International Universities.

WORKSHOP VENUE: Main Seminar Room, NCAR Foothills Laboratory, 3450 Mitchell Lane, Boulder 

WORKSHOP DATES: July 14, 2016
 
WORKSHOP REGISTRATION FEE: $100 (Early Bird Registration deadline is June 14, 2016)

Beginning June 15, 2016 Registration is $150.

On-site registration $200

For more information, contact Kris Marwitz at ext. 8198, kmarwitz@ucar.edu

Wed, 04/06/2016

Contracts invites all interested staff to attend its upcoming lunch and learn sessions.  Information is as follows:

Date

Time

Location

Topic(s)

April 6, 2016

12:00 pm – 1:00 pm

FLA-2111

Roles and responsibilities (Direct Awards, Procurement)

May 3, 2016

12:00 pm – 1:00 pm

FL1-2133

Pre-spending / over-spending considerations and contractual authority/committing the corporation

June 6, 2016

12:00 pm – 1:00 pm

CG1-2126

Procurement process (PR through payment)

July 8, 2016

12:00 pm – 1:00 pm

ML-Chapman Room

 

Various funding vehicle types from sponsors (e.g., financial assistance, contracts, etc.)

A Google hangout will be initiated for each of the sessions if you are unable to join in person; however, hangouts are limited to 14 participants so please email Michelle Stringham at mstringh@ucar.edu to reserve a spot if you wish to participant via a hangout.  Please note that the sessions will not be recorded. 

For more information, contact Michelle Stringham at ext. 8879, mstringh@ucar.edu

Fri, 03/18/2016

A contractor working for the City of Boulder has begun work on drainage and path improvements north of Center Green Building 3. The project includes installation of a new pedestrian/bicycle path that will pass under the railroad track and connect to the existing path east of CG1 and CG3. For more details on the project visit

 During construction, vehicles and equipment will be accessing the work site via the Center Green parking lot. Also, construction vehicles and equipment may be temporarily staged in the parking lot west of CG3.

 The work will continue intermittently through the spring and into the summer and should not cause significant disruption at Center Green. Intermittent vehicle and construction noise will be present.

 The path is to remain open through the project, but brief delays are possible during some phases of the project.

For more information, contact David Maddy at ext. 1134, maddy@ucar.edu

Fri, 02/12/2016

Per the previous Heads Up announcement, Contracts issued a Request for Proposal (RFP) to solicit a vendor for the next office supply Non-Encumbered Blanket Purchase Order (NBPO).  This process is now complete.  Faison Office Products was the successful vendor in this RFP.  Thanks to all those who participated in the evaluation process!

If your lab/program wants to purchase office supplies through this NBPO, please submit a Purchase Requisition (PR) to Contracts at contract@ucar.edu.  The account key series for the lab/program should be used on the PR with the exception of account keys in 30xxxx, 31xxxx, or 32xxxx.  Also, the person(s) authorizing the PR must have at least $5,000 in signature authority for the account key series included on the PR.   Please utilize the NBPO Purchase Requisition form found on the Contracts webpage under Contract Forms.

Please submit the PRs for this NBPO to Contracts no later than Friday July 17, 2015. 

Please direct any questions regarding this NBPO or the ordering process to Justin Lee at justinl@ucar.edu or 303-497-2069

For more information, contact Justin Lee at ext. 2069, justinl@ucar.edu

Wed, 07/15/2015