Limits of predictability: forecasting weather driven natural hazards

Limits of predictability: forecasting weather driven natural hazards
Florian Pappenberger
Director of Forecasts, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF

Synopsis: 
The presentation will set the challenge of forecasting natural hazards within the context of the ECMWF strategy. It will propose how integrated earth system modelling can enhance our forecasting capabilities. This will be demonstrated on examples of the European and Global Flood Awareness System and discuss the use of seasonal forecasts within hydrology. 

Presenter Bio:
Dr. Florian Pappenberger is Director of Forecasts at ECMWF. Florian has a scientific background in the forecasting of weather driven natural hazards including floods, droughts, windstorms, forest fires and impacts on human health. He has over 10 years of expertise in operational probabilistic forecasting, extreme value statistics and numerical model system development at ECMWF and was responsible for the development and implementation of the operational centre of the Copernicus Emergency Service - Early Warning Systems (floods). Florian is the author of over 150 publications, has won several scientific awards and is visiting Professor at the University of Bristol. He is an elected fellow of the Royal Geographical Society and the Royal Meteorological Society and a member of several other professional bodies including HEPEX, British Hydrological Society, EGU, AGU, EMS, AMS. He is on the editorial board of several international scientific journals and regularly advises on WMO and other international committees.

Thursday, November 16, 2017 
1:30-2:30
FL2-1022 Large Auditorium

Building:

Room Number: 
1022

Type of event:

Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Announcement Timing: 
November 13, 2017 to November 16, 2017
Calendar Timing: 
Thursday, November 16, 2017 - 1:30pm to 2:30pm