Solar energy gets boost from new forecasting system

BOULDER, Colo. — A cutting edge forecasting system developed by a national team of scientists offers the potential to save the solar energy industry hundreds of millions of dollars through improved forecasts of the atmosphere.The new system, known as Sun4CastTM, has been in development for three years by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in collaboration with government labs, universities, utilities, and commercial firms across the country. Funded by the U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative, the system greatly improves predictions of clouds and other atmospheric conditions that influence the amount of energy generated by solar arrays.After testing Sun4Cast at multiple sites, the research team has determined that it can be up to 50 percent more accurate than current solar power forecasts. This improved accuracy will enable utilities to deploy solar energy more reliably and inexpensively, reducing the need to purchase energy on the spot market. The amount of energy gathered by solar panels — such as these in Colorado's San Luis Valley — is influenced by factors including the position and types of clouds, the amount of snow on the ground, and relative humidity. The new Sun4Cast system greatly improves solar irradiance predictions, enabling utilities to deploy solar energy more reliably and inexpensively. (©UCAR. Photo by Sue Ellen Haupt, NCAR. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.)As a result, utilities across the United States may be able to save an estimated $455 million through 2040 as they use more solar energy, according to an analysis by NCAR economist Jeffrey Lazo.NCAR, which does not provide operational forecasts, makes the technology available so it can be adapted by utilities or private forecasting companies. The research is being highlighted in more than 20 peer-reviewed papers."These results can help enable the nation's expanding use of solar energy," said Sue Ellen Haupt, director of NCAR’s Weather Systems and Assessment Program, who led the research team. "More accurate predictions are vital for making solar energy more reliable and cost effective."The work builds on NCAR’s expertise in highly detailed atmospheric prediction, including the design of an advanced wind energy forecasting system."This type of research and development is important because it contributes to the reduction in costs for solar and wind energy and makes it easier for utilities to integrate renewables into the electrical grid," said William Mahoney, Deputy Director of NCAR's Research Applications Laboratory. "When it comes to balancing demand for power with supply, it's vital to be able to predict sources of energy as accurately as possible."Xcel Energy is already beginning to use the system to forecast conditions at several of its main solar facilities.“Our previous experience with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in developing a wind forecasting system has saved millions of dollars and has been highly beneficial for our customers," said Drake Bartlett, senior trading analyst for Xcel Energy – Colorado. "It is our sincere hope and belief that we will see positive atmospheric forecasting results for predicting solar generation as well, again to the benefit of our Xcel Energy customers."Energy forecasts out to 72 hoursUsing a combination of advanced computer models, atmospheric observations, and artificial intelligence techniques, Sun4Cast provides 0- to 6-hour nowcasts of solar irradiance and the resulting power production for specific solar facilities at 15-minute intervals. This enables utilities to continuously anticipate the amount of available solar energy.In addition, forecasts extend out to 72 hours, allowing utility officials to make decisions in advance for balancing solar with other sources of energy.Solar irradiance is notoriously difficult to predict. It is affected not just by the locations and types of clouds, but also a myriad of other atmospheric conditions, such as the amount of dust and other particles in the air, relative humidity, and air pollution. Further complicating the forecast, freshly fallen snow, nearby steep mountainsides, or even passing cumulus clouds can reflect sunlight in a way that can increase the amount of energy produced by solar panels.To design a system to forecast solar energy output, NCAR and its partners drew on an array of observing instruments, including satellites, radars, and sky imagers; specialized software; and mathematical and artificial intelligence techniques. Central to Sun4Cast is a new computer model of the atmosphere that simulates solar irradiance based on meteorological conditions. Called WRF-SolarTM, the model is derived from the NCAR-based Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which is widely used by meteorological agencies worldwide.The team tested the system in geographically diverse areas, including Long Island, New York; the Colorado mountains; and coastal California."We have to provide utilities with confidence that the system maintains a high degree of accuracy year-round in very different types of terrain," said Branko Kosovic, NCAR Program Manager for Renewable Energy.In addition to aiding the solar power industry, the work can also improve weather forecasting in general because of improved cloud prediction.NCAR's numerous partners on the project in the public and private sectors included:Government labs: National Renewable Energy Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Earth System Research Laboratory, and other NOAA facilities; Universities: The Pennsylvania State University, Colorado State University, University of Hawaii, and University of Washington; Utilities: Long Island Power Authority, New York Power Authority, Public Service Company of Colorado, Sacramento Municipal Utility District (SMUD), Southern California Edison, and the Hawaiian Electric Company; Independent system operators: New York ISO, Xcel Energy, SMUD, California ISO, and Hawaiian Electric; and Commercial forecast providers: Schneider Electric, Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Global Weather Corporation, MDA Information Systems, and Solar Consulting Services.Computing time was provided by the New York State Department of Economic Development's Division of Science, Technology and Innovation on an IBM Blue Gene supercomputer at Brookhaven National Laboratory. Researchers also performed computing at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center and the DOE National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center.About the SunShot InitiativeThe U.S. Department of Energy SunShot Initiative is a collaborative national effort that aggressively drives innovation to make solar energy fully cost-competitive with traditional energy sources before the end of the decade. Through SunShot, the Energy Department supports efforts by private companies, universities, and national laboratories to drive down the cost of solar electricity to $0.06 per kilowatt-hour.

US taps NCAR technology for new water resources forecasts

BOULDER, Colo. — As the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) this month launches a comprehensive system for forecasting water resources in the United States, it is turning to technology developed by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and its university and agency collaborators.WRF-Hydro, a powerful NCAR-based computer model, is the first nationwide operational system to provide continuous predictions of water levels and potential flooding in rivers and streams from coast to coast. NOAA's new Office of Water Prediction selected it last year as the core of the agency's new National Water Model."WRF-Hydro gives us a continuous picture of all of the waterways in the contiguous United States," said NCAR scientist David Gochis, who helped lead its development. "By generating detailed forecast guidance that is hours to weeks ahead, it will help officials make more informed decisions about reservoir levels and river navigation, as well as alerting them to dangerous events like flash floods."WRF-Hydro (WRF stands for Weather Research and Forecasting) is part of a major Office of Water Prediction initiative to bolster U.S. capabilities in predicting and managing water resources. By teaming with NCAR and the research community, NOAA's National Water Center is developing a new national water intelligence capability, enabling better impacts-based forecasts for management and decision making.The new WRF-Hydro computer model simulates streams and other aspects of the hydrologic system in far more detail than previously possible. (Image by NOAA Office of Water Prediction.) Unlike past streamflow models, which provided forecasts every few hours and only for specific points along major river systems, WRF-Hydro provides continuous forecasts of millions of points along rivers, streams, and their tributaries across the contiguous United States. To accomplish this, it simulates the entire hydrologic system — including snowpack, soil moisture, local ponded water, and evapotranspiration — and rapidly generates output on some of the nation's most powerful supercomputers.WRF-Hydro was developed in collaboration with NOAA and university and agency scientists through the Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic Science, the U.S. Geological Survey, Israel Hydrologic Service, and Baron Advanced Meteorological Services. Funding came from NOAA, NASA, and the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor."WRF-Hydro is a perfect example of the transition from research to operations," said Antonio (Tony) J. Busalacchi, president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages NCAR on behalf of the National Science Foundation (NSF). "It builds on the NSF investment in basic research in partnership with other agencies, helps to accelerate collaboration with the larger research community, and culminates in support of a mission agency such as NOAA. The use of WRF-Hydro in an operational setting will also allow for feedback from operations to research. In the end this is a win-win situation for all parties involved, chief among them the U.S. taxpayers.""Through our partnership with NCAR and the academic and federal water community, we are bringing the state of the science in water forecasting and prediction to bear operationally," said Thomas Graziano, director of NOAA’s new Office of Water Prediction at the National Weather Service.Filling in the water pictureThe continental United States has a vast network of rivers and streams, from major navigable waterways such as the Mississippi and Columbia to the remote mountain brooks flowing from the high Adirondacks into the Hudson River. The levels and flow rates of these watercourses have far-reaching implications for water availability, water quality, and public safety.Until now, however, it has not been possible to predict conditions at all points in the nation's waterways. Instead, computer models have produced a limited picture by incorporating observations from about 4,000 gauges, generally on the country's bigger rivers. Smaller streams and channels are largely left out of these forecast models, and stretches of major rivers for tens of miles are often not predicted — meaning that schools, bridges, and even entire towns can be vulnerable to unexpected changes in river levels.To fill in the picture, NCAR scientists have worked for the past several years with their colleagues within NOAA, other federal agencies, and universities to combine a range of atmospheric, hydrologic, and soil data into a single forecasting system.The resulting National Water Model, based on WRF-Hydro, simulates current and future conditions on rivers and streams along points two miles apart across the contiguous United States. Along with an hourly analysis of current hydrologic conditions, the National Water Model generates three predictions: an hourly 0- to 15-hour short-range forecast, a daily 0- to 10-day medium-range forecast, and a daily 0- to 30-day long-range water resource forecast.The National Water Model predictions using WRF-Hydro offer a wide array of benefits for society. They will help local, state, and federal officials better manage reservoirs, improve navigation along major rivers, plan for droughts, anticipate water quality problems caused by lower flows, and monitor ecosystems for issues such as whether conditions are favorable for fish spawning. By providing a national view, this will also help the Federal Emergency Management Agency deploy resources more effectively in cases of simultaneous emergencies, such as a hurricane in the Gulf Coast and flooding in California."We've never had such a comprehensive system before," Gochis said. "In some ways, the value of this is a blank page yet to be written."A broad spectrum of observationsWRF-Hydro is a powerful forecasting system that incorporates advanced meteorological and streamflow observations, including data from nearly 8,000 U.S. Geological Survey streamflow gauges across the country. Using advanced mathematical techniques, the model then simulates current and future conditions for millions of points on every significant river, steam, tributary, and catchment in the United States.In time, scientists will add additional observations to the model, including snowpack conditions, lake and reservoir levels, subsurface flows, soil moisture, and land-atmosphere interactions such as evapotranspiration, the process by which water in soil, plants, and other land surfaces evaporates into the atmosphere.Scientists over the last year have demonstrated the accuracy of WRF-Hydro by comparing its simulations to observations of streamflow, snowpack, and other variables. They will continue to assess and expand the system as the National Water Model begins operational forecasts.NCAR scientists maintain and update the open-source code of WRF-Hydro, which is available to the academic community and others. WRF-Hydro is widely used by researchers, both to better understand water resources and floods in the United States and other countries such as Norway, Germany, Romania, Turkey, and Israel, and to project the possible impacts of climate change."At any point in time, forecasts from the new National Water Model have the potential to impact 300 million people," Gochis said. "What NOAA and its collaborator community are doing is trying to usher in a new era of bringing in better physics and better data into forecast models for improving situational awareness and hydrologic decision making."CollaboratorsBaron Advanced Meteorological Services Consortium of Universities for the Advancement of Hydrologic ScienceIsrael Hydrologic ServiceNational Center for Atmospheric ResearchNational Oceanic and Atmospheric AdministrationU.S. Geological SurveyFundersNational Science FoundationNational Aeronautics and Space AdministrationNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Climate change already accelerating sea level rise, study finds

BOULDER, Colo. — Greenhouse gases are already having an accelerating effect on sea level rise, but the impact has so far been masked by the cataclysmic 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo in the Philippines, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).Satellite observations, which began in 1993, indicate that the rate of sea level rise has held fairly steady at about 3 millimeters per year. But the expected acceleration due to climate change is likely hidden in the satellite record because of a happenstance of timing: The record began soon after the Pinatubo eruption, which temporarily cooled the planet, causing sea levels to drop.The new study finds that the lower starting point effectively distorts the calculation of sea level rise acceleration for the last couple of decades.The study lends support to climate model projections, which show the rate of sea level rise escalating over time as the climate warms. The findings were published today in the open-access Nature journal Scientific Reports.Mount Pinatubo's caldera on June 22, 1991. (Image courtesy USGS.)"When we used climate model runs designed to remove the effect of the Pinatubo eruption, we saw the rate of sea level rise accelerating in our simulations," said NCAR scientist John Fasullo, who led the study. "Now that the impacts of Pinatubo have faded, this acceleration should become evident in the satellite measurements in the coming decade, barring another major volcanic eruption."Study co-author Steve Nerem, from the University of Colorado Boulder, added: “This study shows that large volcanic eruptions can significantly impact the satellite record of global average sea level change. So we must be careful to consider these effects when we look for the effects of climate change in the satellite-based sea level record."The findings have implications for the extent of sea level rise this century and may be useful to coastal communities planning for the future. In recent years, decision makers have debated whether these communities should make plans based on the steady rate of sea level rise measured in recent decades or based on the accelerated rate expected in the future by climate scientists.The study was funded by NASA, the U.S. Department of Energy, and the National Science Foundation, which is NCAR's sponsor.Reconstructing a pre-Pinatubo worldClimate change triggers sea level rise in a couple of ways: by warming the ocean, which causes the water to expand, and by melting glaciers and ice sheets, which drain into the ocean and increase its volume. In recent decades, the pace of warming and melting has accelerated, and scientists have expected to see a corresponding increase in the rate of sea level rise. But analysis of the relatively short satellite record has not borne that out.To investigate, Fasullo, Nerem, and Benjamin Hamlington of Old Dominion University worked to pin down how quickly sea levels were rising in the decades before the satellite record began.Prior to the launch of the international TOPEX/Poseidon satellite mission in late 1992, sea level was mainly measured using tide gauges. While records from some gauges stretch back to the 18th century, variations in measurement technique and location mean that the pre-satellite record is best used to get a ballpark estimate of global mean sea level.Mount Pinatubo erupting in 1991. (Image courtesy USGS.)To complement the historic record, the research team used a dataset produced by running the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model 40 times with slightly different—but historically plausible—starting conditions. The resulting simulations characterize the range of natural variability in the factors that affect sea levels. The model was run on the Yellowstone system at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center.A separate set of model runs that omitted volcanic aerosols — particles spewed into the atmosphere by an eruption — was also assessed. By comparing the two sets of runs, the scientists were able to pick out a signal (in this case, the impact of Mount Pinatubo's eruption) from the noise (natural variations in ocean temperature and other factors that affect sea level)."You can't do it with one or two model runs—or even three or four," Fasullo said. "There's just too much accompanying climate noise to understand precisely what the effect of Pinatubo was. We could not have done it without large numbers of runs."Using models to understand observationsAnalyzing the simulations, the research team found that Pinatubo's eruption caused the oceans to cool and sea levels to drop by about 6 millimeters immediately before TOPEX/Poseidon began recording observations.As the sunlight-blocking aerosols from Mount Pinatubo dissipated in the simulations, sea levels began to slowly rebound to pre-eruption levels. This rebound swamped the acceleration caused by the warming climate and made the rate of sea level rise higher in the mid- to late 1990s than it would otherwise have been.This higher-than-normal rate of sea level rise in the early part of the satellite record makes it appear that the rate of sea level rise has not accelerated over time and may actually have decreased somewhat. In fact, according to the study, if the Pinatubo eruption had not occurred—leaving sea level at a higher starting point in the early 1990s—the satellite record would have shown a clear acceleration."The satellite record is unable to account for everything that happened before the first satellite was launched, " Fasullo said. "This study is a great example of how computer models can give us the historical context that's needed to understand some of what we're seeing in the satellite record."Understanding whether the rate of sea level rise is accelerating or remaining constant is important because it drastically changes what sea levels might look like in 20, 50, or 100 years.“These scientists have disentangled the major role played by the 1991 volcanic eruption of Mt. Pinatubo on trends in global mean sea level,” said Anjuli Bamzai, program director in the National Science Foundation’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funded the research.  “This research is vital as society prepares for the potential effects of climate change."Because the study's findings suggest that acceleration due to climate change is already under way, the acceleration should become evident in the satellite record in the coming decade, Fasullo said.Since the original TOPEX/Poseidon mission, other satellites have been launched—Jason-1 in 2001 and Jason-2 in 2008—to continue tracking sea levels. The most recent satellite, Jason-3, launched on Jan. 17 of this year."Sea level rise is potentially one of the most damaging impacts of climate change, so it's critical that we understand how quickly it will rise in the future," Fasullo said. "Measurements from Jason-3 will help us evaluate what we've learned in this study and help us better plan for the future."The University Corporation for Atmospheric Research manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation. Any opinions, findings and conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation.The graph shows how sea level rises and falls as ocean heat content fluctuates. After volcanic eruptions, the Earth cools and, in turn, the heat content in the ocean drops, ultimately lowering sea level.The solid blue line is the average sea level rise of climate model simulations that include volcanic eruptions. The green line is the average from model simulations with the effect of volcanic eruptions removed, and it shows a smooth acceleration in the rate of sea level rise due to climate change.The blue line between the start of the satellite record and present day makes a relatively straight line — just as we see from actual satellite observations during that time —  indicating that the rate of sea level rise has not accelerated. But in the future, barring another major volcanic eruption, scientists expect sea level to follow the gray dotted line, which is on the same accelerating path as the green line below it. Click to enlarge. (©UCAR. This graph is freely available for media & nonprofit use.) About the articleTitle: Is the detection of sea level rise imminent?Authors: J.T. Fasullo, R. S. Nerem, and B. HamlingtonJournal: Scientific Reports, DOI: 10.1038/srep31245 Funders:  NASANational Science FoundationU.S. Department of Energy Collaborators: Univesity of Colorado Boulder (UCAR member)Old Dominion University (UCAR member)Writer:Laura Snider, Senior Science Writer and Public Information Officer

UCAR maintains A+ long-term credit rating

BOULDER — The A+ long-term bond rating for the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) has been affirmed by the credit rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P).The A+ rating reflects UCAR's role as a leading organization supporting atmospheric and earth-system science, and its ability to increase its financial strength, S&P stated in the report last month.UCAR, a consortium of more than 100 colleges and universities, manages the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) under sponsorship by the National Science Foundation (NSF). The organization has an annual budget of more than $200 million.The Anthes Building in Boulder houses UCAR's administrative staff. (©UCAR. Photo by Carlye Calvin. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.)In its report, S&P cited a number of UCAR's strengths: financial flexibility, stable membership, longstanding relationship with NSF, manageable debt, and solid operating performance.Melissa Miller, UCAR vice president of finance and administration, said the organization works hard to maintain a high credit rating, which translates into lower costs for its funders.Bonds have been issued over the years to procure and equip facilities."UCAR is vigilant in taking the necessary steps to ensure continued sound fiscal management amid a frequently changing financial landscape," Miller said.

Expanding Antarctic sea ice linked to natural variability

BOULDER — The recent trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent — seemingly at odds with climate model projections — can largely be explained by a natural climate fluctuation, according to a new study led by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The study offers evidence that the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), which is characterized by cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific, has created favorable conditions for additional Antarctic sea ice growth since 2000. The findings, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, may resolve a longstanding mystery: Why is Antarctic sea ice expanding when climate change is causing the world to warm? The study's authors also suggest that sea ice may begin to shrink as the IPO switches to a positive phase. "The climate we experience during any given decade is some combination of naturally occurring variability and the planet's response to increasing greenhouse gases," said NCAR scientist Gerald Meehl, lead author of the study. "It's never all one or the other, but the combination, that is important to understand." Study co-authors include Julie Arblaster of NCAR and Monash University in Australia, Cecilia Bitz of the University of Washington, Christine Chung of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and NCAR scientist Haiyan Teng. The study was funded by the U.S. Department of Energy and by the National Science Foundation, which sponsors NCAR. On Sept. 19, 2014, the five-day average of Antarctic sea ice extent exceeded 20 million square kilometers (about 7.7 million square miles) for the first time since 1979, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center. The red line shows the average maximum extent from 1979-2014. (Image courtesy NASA's Scientific Visualization Studio/Cindy Starr) Expanding ice The sea ice surrounding Antarctica has been slowly increasing in area since the satellite record began in 1979. But the rate of increase rose nearly five fold between 2000 and 2014, following the IPO transition to a negative phase in 1999. The new study finds that when the IPO changes phase, from positive to negative or vice versa, it touches off a chain reaction of climate impacts that may ultimately affect sea ice formation at the bottom of the world. When the IPO transitions to a negative phase, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific become somewhat cooler than average when measured over a decade or two. These sea surface temperatures, in turn, change tropical precipitation, which drives large-scale changes to the winds that extend all the way down to Antarctica. The ultimate impact is a deepening of a low-pressure system off the coast of Antarctica known as the Amundsen Sea Low. Winds generated on the western flank of this system blow sea ice northward, away from Antarctica, helping to enlarge the extent of sea ice coverage. “Compared to the Arctic, global warming causes only weak Antarctic sea ice loss, which is why the IPO can have such a striking effect in the Antarctic," said Bitz. "There is no comparable natural variability in the Arctic that competes with global warming.” Sifting through simulations To test if these IPO-related impacts were sufficient to cause the growth in sea ice extent observed between 2000 and 2014, the scientists first examined 262 climate simulations created by different modeling groups from around the world. When all of those simulations are averaged, the natural variability cancels itself out. For example, simulations with a positive IPO offset those with a negative IPO. What remains is the expected impact of human-caused climate change: a decline in Antarctic sea ice extent. But for this study, the scientists were not interested in the average. Instead, they wanted to find individual members that correctly characterized the natural variability between 2000-2014, including the negative phase of the IPO. The team discovered 10 simulations that met the criteria, and all of them showed an increase in Antarctic sea ice extent across all seasons. "When all the models are taken together, the natural variability is averaged out, leaving only the shrinking sea ice caused by global warming," Arblaster said. "But the model simulations that happen to sync up with the observed natural variability capture the expansion of the sea ice area. And we were able to trace these changes to the equatorial eastern Pacific in our model experiments." Scientists suspect that in 2014, the IPO began to change from negative to positive. That would indicate an upcoming period of warmer eastern Pacific Ocean surface temperatures on average, though year-to-year temperatures may go up or down, depending on El Niño/La Niña conditions. Accordingly, the trend of increasing Antarctic sea ice extent may also change in response. "As the IPO transitions to positive, the increase of Antarctic sea ice extent should slow and perhaps start to show signs of retreat when averaged over the next 10 years or so," Meehl said. About the article Title: Antarctic sea-ice expansion between 2000 and 2014 driven by tropical Pacific decadal climate variability Authors: Gerald A. Meehl, Julie M. Arblaster, Cecilia M. Bitz, Christine T. Y. Chung, and Haiyan Teng Publication: Nature Geoscience, DOI: 10.1038/NGEO2751 WriterLaura Snider, Senior Science Writer and Public Information Officer

Future summers could regularly be hotter than the hottest on record

BOULDER — In 50 years, summers across most of the globe could regularly be hotter than any summer experienced so far by people alive today, according to a study by scientists at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR).  If climate change continues on its current trajectory, the probability that any summer between 2061 and 2080 will be warmer than the hottest on record is 80 percent across the world's land areas, excluding Antarctica, which was not studied. If greenhouse gas emissions are reduced, however, that probability drops to 41 percent, according to the study. "Extremely hot summers always pose a challenge to society," said NCAR scientist Flavio Lehner, lead author of the study. "They can increase the risk for health issues, but can also damage crops and deepen droughts. Such summers are a true test of our adaptability to rising temperatures." The study, which is available online, is part of an upcoming special issue of the journal Climatic Changethat will focus on quantifying the benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The research was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Swiss National Science Foundation. If greenhouse gas emissions remain unabated. virtually every summer between 2061-2080 could be hotter than any in the historical record. (Image is in the public domain.) Simulating a range of summers The research team, which includes NCAR scientists Clara Deser and Benjamin Sanderson, used two existing sets of model simulations to investigate what future summers might look like. Both had been created by running the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model 15 times, with one assuming that greenhouse gas emissions remain unabated and the other assuming that society reduces emissions. The Community Earth System Model is funded by NSF and the U.S. Department of Energy. The simulations were run on the Yellowstone system at the NCAR-Wyoming Supercomputing Center. By using simulations that were created by running the same model multiple times, with only tiny differences in the initial starting conditions, the scientists could examine the range of summertime temperatures we might expect in the future for the "business-as-usual" and reduced-emissions scenarios. "This is the first time that the risk of record summer heat and its dependence on the rate of greenhouse gas emissions has been so comprehensively evaluated from a large set of simulations with a single state-of-the-art climate model," Deser said. The scientists compared the results to summertime temperatures recorded between 1920 and 2014 as well as to 15 sets of simulated summertime temperatures for the same historic period. By simulating past summers — instead of relying solely on observations — the scientists established a large range of temperatures that could have occurred naturally under the same conditions, including greenhouse gas concentrations and volcanic eruptions. "Instead of just comparing the future to 95 summers from the past, the models give us the opportunity to create more than 1,400 possible past summers," Lehner said. "The result is a more comprehensive and robust look at what should be considered natural variability and what can be attributed to climate change." Emissions cuts could yield big benefits The scientists found that between 2061 and 2080, summers in large parts of North and South America, central Europe, Asia, and Africa have a greater than 90 percent chance of being warmer than any summer in the historic record if emissions continue unabated. This means that virtually every summer would be as warm as the hottest to date. In some regions, the likelihood of summers being warmer than any in the historical record remained less than 50 percent, but in those places — including Alaska, the central U.S., Scandinavia, Siberia, and continental Australia — summer temperatures naturally vary a great deal, making it more difficult to detect the impact of climate change. Reducing emissions would lower the global probability that future summers will be hotter than any in the past, but the benefits would not be spread uniformly. In some regions, including the U.S. East Coast and large parts of the tropics, the probability would remain above 90 percent, even if emissions were reduced. But it would be a sizable boon for other regions of the world. Parts of Brazil, central Europe, and eastern China would see a reduction of more than 50 percentage points in the chance that future summers would be hotter than the historic range. Since these areas are densely inhabited, a large part of the global population would benefit significantly from climate change mitigation. “We've thought of climate change as 'global warming'; among what matters is how this overall warming affects conditions that hit people where they live,” said Eric DeWeaver, program director in NSF’s Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences, which funds NCAR.  “Extreme temperatures pose risks to people around the globe. These scientists show the power of ensembles of simulations for understanding how these risks depend on the level of greenhouse gas emissions.” Lehner recently published another study looking at the overlay of population on warming projections. “It's often overlooked that the majority of the world's population lives in regions that will see a comparably fast rise in temperatures," he said.  About the article Title: Future risk of record-breaking summer temperatures and its mitigation Authors: Flavio Lehner, Clara Deser, and Benjamin M. Sanderson Publication: Climatic Change, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1616-2 Writer:Laura Snider, Senior Science Writer

3D-printed weather stations fill gaps in developing world

BOULDER — Scientists have successfully installed the first wave of low-cost weather stations that are designed to provide critically needed information to farmers and other residents in developing countries. The stations are built largely with 3D-printed parts that can be easily replaced if they wear out in the field. They were created by weather experts at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and its managing entity, the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR). The first five stations, newly installed in Zambia, are beginning to transmit information about temperature, rainfall, winds, and other weather parameters. These measurements and the resulting forecasts can provide weather information for local subsistence farmers deciding when to plant and fertilize crops. They can also alert communities about floods and other potential disasters. A newly installed weather station at the Salvation Army's College of Biomedical Sciences in Chikankata, Zambia. The sensor on the left (with the funnel) is a specially designed tipping bucket rain gauge; the vertical, vented cylinder on the vertical arm of the station is a radiation shield containing temperature, humidity, and pressure sensors; and the horizontal cylinder protruding out the back contains a single-board computer. A wind vane (left), solar light sensor (middle), and three-cup wind anemometer (right) are mounted on the upper arm.  The station is powered by a single solar panel and a backup battery. (©UCAR. Photo by Martin Steinson. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.) "It’s a major opportunity to provide weather information that farmers have never had before," said NCAR scientist Paul Kucera, one of the project leaders. "This can literally make the difference when it comes to being able to feed their families." The scientists will next explore the need for low-cost weather stations in other developing countries. The project is funded by the U.S. Agency for International Development's Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance and the U.S. National Weather Service. “The bottom line is that 3D-printing will help to save lives,” said Sezin Tokar, a hydrometeorologist with U.S. AID. “Not only can they provide countries with the ability to more accurately monitor for weather-related disasters, the data they produce can also help reduce the economic impact of disasters.” Lack of observations Like many developing countries, Zambia does not have detailed forecasts, partly because weather stations are scarce. The density of stations in Africa is eight times lower than recommended by the World Meteorological Organization. Building out a network can be prohibitively expensive, with a single commercial weather station often costing $10,000 to $20,000, plus ongoing funding for maintenance and replacing worn-out parts. To fill this need, UCAR and NCAR scientists have worked for years to come up with a weather station that is cheap and easy to fix, and can be adapted to the needs of the host country. The resulting stations are constructed out of plastic parts that are custom designed and can be run off a 3D printer, along with off-the-shelf sensors and a basic, credit card-sized computer developed for schoolchildren. Total cost: about $300 per station. Best of all, the host country can easily print replacement parts. "If you want a different kind of wind direction gauge or anemometer, or you just need to replace a broken part, you can just print it out yourself," said project co-lead Martin Steinson of UCAR. "Our role is to make this as accessible as possible. This is entirely conceived as an open-source project." Building out a network Working with the Zambian Meteorological Department and other agencies, Kucera and Steinson installed the first stations earlier this year—three next to radio stations that will broadcast the information to local communities, one by a rural hospital, and one by the headquarters of the meteorological department. The meteorological office will take over the project later this year, with a goal of building out a network of 100 weather stations across Zambia. They will also have the 3D printers, materials, and training to maintain or upgrade the network. The weather station measurements are accessible to local meteorologists and also transmitted over wireless networks in real time to NCAR. After all the weather stations have been installed, scientists will develop a system of one- to three-day regional forecasts for Zambia using the NCAR-based Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) computer model. The forecasts, in addition to helping farmers and other residents, can also alert the country to the threat of impending floods or other weather-related disasters. The system will ultimately be transferred to the Zambian Meteorological Department to run the forecasts. "The objective of the project is to transfer the technology so this will be run by Zambia," Kucera said. Once the technology has been established in Zambia, Kucera and Steinson will turn to other nations that need additional weather stations, such as in Africa or the Caribbean. In addition to improving local forecasts, the additional observations can eventually make a difference for forecasts globally because computer models everywhere will have additional information about the atmosphere. "We’re hearing a lot of interest in using this technology in other countries," Kucera said. "It’s really quite a return on investment." Writer:David Hosansky, Manager of Media Relations

UCAR to support EarthCube: Cyberinfrastructure will advance science

BOULDER – EarthCube, a landmark initiative to develop new technological and computational capabilities for geosciences research, will be supported by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) under a new agreement with the National Science Foundation (NSF). Created by NSF in 2011, EarthCube aims to help researchers across the geosciences from meteorology to seismology better understand our planet in ways that can strengthen societal resilience to natural events. More than 2,500 EarthCube contributors – including scientists, educators, and information professionals – work together on the creation of a common cyberinfrastructure for researchers to collect, access, analyze, share, and visualize all forms of data and related resources. "EarthCube offers the promise to advance geoscience research by creating and delivering critical new capabilities,” said UCAR scientist Mohan Ramamurthy, principal investigator and project director of the new EarthCube office at UCAR. "This is a great opportunity for UCAR to leverage its successful track record in managing large scientific projects that advance our understanding of the planet," said Michael Thompson, interim UCAR president. "The EarthCube project offers the potential to significantly benefit society by helping scientists use the power of diverse big datasets to better understand and predict the natural events, from severe storms to solar disturbances, that affect all of us." EarthCube is designed to foster collaborations across the geosciences. The technology helps scientists in different disciplines better understand the far-reaching influences of natural events, such as how major storms like Sandy (above) affect coastal and inland flooding. This unique view of Sandy was generated with NCAR's VAPOR visualization software, based on detailed computer modeling. (©UCAR. Visualization by Alan Norton, NCAR, based on research by NCAR scientists Mel Shapiro and Thomas Galarneau. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use. Click here for higher resolution.) UCAR will administer the day-to-day operations of EarthCube under the three-year, $2.8 million agreement with NSF. The EarthCube science support office, currently funded through an NSF grant to the Arizona Geological Survey in Tucson, Arizona, will move to UCAR's Boulder offices starting this month. EarthCube is designed to help researchers across the geosciences address the challenges of understanding and predicting the complexity of the Earth system, from the geology and topography to the water cycle, atmosphere, and space environment of the planet. This approach is critical for improved understanding of the environment and better safeguarding society. In order to better predict the potential effects of a landfalling hurricane on inland mudslides, for example, scientists from multiple disciplines, including meteorology, hydrology, geography, and geology, need a common platform to work together to collect observations, ingest them into advanced computer models of the Earth system, and analyze and interpret the resulting data. "The EarthCube Science Support Office will help us find and share the data geoscientists collect and use to answer critical science questions about the Earth," said Eva Zanzerkia, program director in NSF’s Division of Earth Sciences. Ramamurthy said UCAR is well positioned to help EarthCube meet its goals, since UCAR provides technological support to the geosciences community, including its 109 member universities. UCAR has been involved with EarthCube since NSF launched the initiative. "Currently researchers are spending an enormous amount of time on routine tasks because there is no data system, database, or data infrastructure where they can get all the information they need in some kind of a uniform way from a single interface," Ramamurthy said. "If EarthCube can facilitate the integration of data from multiple domains in a way that is easier and faster, and if there is interoperability in terms of standards for data to be input into a common environment, then integration becomes more easily possible." UCAR is a nonprofit consortium of more than 100 member colleges and universities focused on research and training in the atmospheric and related Earth system sciences. UCAR’s primary activity is managing the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on behalf of NSF, NCAR’s sponsor. UCAR also oversees a variety of education and scientific support activities under the umbrella of the UCAR Community Programs, which will administer EarthCube.

NCAR to open multimedia exhibit on climate change

BOULDER – The National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) next month is unveiling a major new exhibit about climate change. The multimedia displays at NCAR’s Mesa Lab will constitute what is believed to be the region’s largest permanent exhibit dedicated to climate change.  It will highlight the workings of our climate system, how scientists study it, and the potential impacts of warming temperatures and altered precipitation patterns on society and the environment. “Our goal is to provide the public with an engaging and scientifically accurate forum to learn about climate change, which is perhaps the signature environmental challenge of our time,” said Becca Hatheway, exhibits manager at the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, which manages NCAR. The touchscreens, audio recordings, activities, and artistically designed panels will entirely replace a more text-oriented exhibit that dated from 2003. This artist's rendition highlights part of the climate exhibit. The first section of the exhibit (right) provides an overview of Earth's climate system. The interactive display (left) allows visitors to explore how future levels of greenhouse gas emissions will affect heat waves. (Illustration by Condit Exhibits.) Although climate change can be a grim subject, the exhibit also aims to leave visitors with a sense of hope. It includes a major section that helps guide visitors through choices they can make, such as consuming less electricity or gas, which can have implications for climate change.  “We don’t want visitors leaving the exhibit feeling nothing but doom and gloom,” Hatheway said. The exhibit, housed in NCAR’s landmark Mesa Lab in south Boulder, will be free to the public. The Mesa Lab draws about 100,000 visitors a year to its exhibits on weather, the Sun, supercomputing, and other topics related to the atmospheric sciences. From climate basics to choosing our future The exhibit will be divided into five sections, each designed with input from NCAR scientists. The sections provide an overview of our climate system, the influence of greenhouse gases, the techniques that scientists use to study climate, the impacts of climate change on society and ecosystems, and strategies for reducing our carbon footprint and adapting to a changing climate. One of the highlights is an interactive exhibit called “Shifting the Weather Odds.” Using balls that drop into different slots, visitors will be able to see how higher emissions of greenhouse gases will lead to extreme heat waves occurring more frequently. Another interactive exhibit, “Choose our Future,” will enable visitors to select activities such as the use of lower-carbon building materials and see how that would affect global temperatures by century’s end. In addition, the exhibit will feature a touchscreen with “Community Stories”—recordings of people across the country sharing observations about local climate change and what they're doing about it. Visitors eventually will be able to upload their own stories. “It’s really important to have these first-person accounts,” Hatheway said. “Climate change is something that affects all of us in different ways.” Exhibits manager Becca Hatheway examines new climate displays.(©UCAR. Photo by David Hosansky. This photo is freely available for media & nonprofit use.) Condit Exhibits is building and installing the exhibit. NCAR Senior Scientist Jeffrey Kiehl, who provided guidance during the planning process, said the exhibit can help adults and children alike learn more about climate change. “This is a wonderful project," he said. "It not only conveys the scientific seriousness of climate change, but perhaps more importantly shows some of the ways we can take on the challenge of addressing the issue.” Explore climate online Climate Learning Zone (UCAR Center for Science Education)

Antonio Busalacchi named president of University Corporation for Atmospheric Research

BOULDER—Dr. Antonio (Tony) J. Busalacchi was named the next president of the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) today, following an extensive international search. He joins UCAR from the University of Maryland, where he is professor of atmospheric and oceanic science and director of the Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center. Busalacchi will join UCAR on Aug. 1. “Tony Busalacchi is an exceptional scientist and leader with a breadth of experience that will be especially important as UCAR extends its role as a leader and advocate for Earth system science,” said Dr. Eric Betterton of the University of Arizona, who chairs the UCAR Board of Trustees. UCAR is a nonprofit consortium made up of more than 100 member colleges and universities focused on research and training in the atmospheric and related Earth system sciences. UCAR’s primary activity is managing the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) on behalf of the National Science Foundation, NCAR’s sponsor. UCAR also oversees a variety of education and scientific support activities under the umbrella of the UCAR Community Programs. Research at UCAR/NCAR advances understanding of severe weather, climate, geomagnetic storms, and other environmental factors that have significant impacts on society in the United States and overseas, including the global economy. This work helps to improve prediction of these phenomena and strengthen national and global resilience to them. Antonio Busalacchi has been named as the next president of UCAR. Click here for a higher-resolution image. (©UCAR. Photo by Carlye Calvin. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.) “It’s an absolute honor and privilege to be selected to lead UCAR,” Busalacchi said. “Building on a long history of weather, water, and climate research, UCAR/NCAR has enormous potential to be the world’s leading institution in Earth system science across basic research, education and training, and science in support of society. I’m excited to lead the organization into a new era in partnership with NCAR Director James Hurrell and our university member community.” In his current position at the University of Maryland, Busalacchi leads an interdisciplinary research center encompassing meteorology, oceanography, geology, and geography to investigate how the land, oceans, and atmosphere react with and influence one another. Busalacchi has held numerous scientific leadership positions over the last three decades. He has chaired or co-chaired many committees for the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) and its National Research Council (NRC) as well as the World Climate Research Programme. He has served on the NAS Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) since 2003 and led BASC as chair from 2009–2014. He has extensive knowledge and experience working with the key government science agencies in Washington, D.C., and he has a comprehensive understanding of the federal funding environment. He has also frequently testified before Congress regarding the value of weather, water, and climate research. “The search committee for the new UCAR president was extremely impressed with the high caliber of applicants for the position, despite the great challenge this presented us in making a selection,” said UCAR Trustee Dr. Everette Joseph, director of the Atmospheric Science Research Center at SUNY Albany and chair of the search committee. “Tony’s broad experience in leading interdisciplinary organizations that span fundamental and applied research as well as demonstrating leadership in our community, experience in Washington, and vision for the future of UCAR and Earth system sciences, are all an excellent fit for UCAR going forward.” “Throughout his career, Tony has demonstrated superb leadership and management of scientific programs,” Hurrell said. “I’ve had the privilege of interacting with Tony in his capacity as a trustee on the UCAR board since 2014 and through his service to NCAR while serving on advisory and review panels, as well as on several national and international science planning efforts. Now I look forward to working closely with him to advance the mission of NCAR.” Prior to joining the University of Maryland faculty in 2000, Busalacchi led the Laboratory for Hydrospheric Processes at the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center (1991–2000) and the laboratory's Oceans and Ice Branch (1988-1990). Busalacchi is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society, American Geophysical Union, and American Association for the Advancement of Science. Earlier this year, he was elected to the National Academy of Engineering. He earned his master's and Ph.D. in oceanography and bachelor of science in physics from Florida State University. He is author or co-author of more than 100 peer-reviewed papers related to atmosphere-ocean interactions.  Busalacchi will take the helm from NCAR Deputy Director and Chief Operating Officer Dr. Michael Thompson, who has served as interim president of UCAR since July 2015. Previously Dr. Thomas Bogdan served as president from 2012 to 2015. External comments on the selection of Busalacchi Dr. Mark Abbott, President and Director, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution:“Tony has long been an acknowledged leader in Earth system science. He will bring a new level of energy and insight to UCAR. His extensive experience in all facets of our science, and his ability to work across the diverse membership of UCAR will be a significant asset. I am very pleased to work with Tony as we advance Earth system science for UCAR." Dr. Waleed Abdalati, Director, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences:"Tony has long been a thoughtful and visionary leader of atmospheric and oceanic research, and I am delighted he will be joining the Boulder community. The scientific expertise he brings to the position, coupled with his understanding and organizational leadership in the national and international arenas, will serve UCAR well. I very much look forward to working with him on advancing our nation’s environmental research capabilities." Dr. Gilbert Brunet, Director, Meteorological Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada; Former Chair of the World Weather Research Programme Scientific Steering Committee, World Meteorological Organization (WMO):“It is with great pleasure I congratulate Tony for his selection as next UCAR President. I met Tony for the first time when he was  chair of the World Climate Research Programme. Together we have valued, developed, and continuously supported the close links needed between the weather and climate communities to face the growing number of joint Earth-system prediction challenges. From these sustained efforts important international research activities bridging the weather and climate communities have been initiated like the WMO Subseasonal to Seasonal and Polar Prediction Project initiatives. Tony’s vision of seamless weather-climate science will put on a solid basis UCAR future and contribution to society.” Dr. Rita Colwell, Distinguished University Professor, University of Maryland, College Park; and Johns Hopkins University School of Public Health; Former Director, National Science Foundation:"Tony and I have been friends and colleagues for a long time. He is kind, generous, and a brilliant scientist. We have published together and his insights and sharp intellect have always brought clarity and focus to the research. Tony Busalacchi is a splendid leader and will serve UCAR very well. I am delighted for him in this new recognition and responsibility and will look forward to his newest successes. Congratulations, Tony! Dr. Kelvin Droegemeier, Vice President for Research, University of Oklahoma:“Tony brings to the UCAR presidency a wealth of experience; strong community engagement; and a broad, international perspective on Earth system sciences research and education. I am pleased he accepted this wonderful opportunity to serve and look forward to working with him.” David Grimes, Assistant Deputy Minister of the Meteorological Service of Canada; President of the World Meteorological Organization:"I was pleased to hear of Dr. Busalacchi’s appointment as UCAR President. As an international partner, I have always valued the relationship with UCAR, particularly the COMET program, which is an excellent distance training program from which many meteorologists around the world have benefitted. I also look forward to furthering our cooperation with NCAR over the coming years under his leadership. Tony’s excellent academic credentials and international experience give me great confidence that he will serve the meteorological community well. I look forward to working closely with Tony in his new position." Dr. Thomas Karl, Director, NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction:"My first reaction, when I learned that UCAR had selected Professor Tony Busalacchi as President, was that UCAR surely had a wise search and selection process. Tony has been a national and international leader in ocean and atmospheric science for many years.  I have seen his dedication to work well-beyond institution boundaries at the National Academies, the World Climate Research Programme, agency advisory committees and more. UCAR has selected a brilliant leader, and we all will benefit immensely." Vice Admiral (retired) Conrad Lautenbacher Jr., former U.S. Department of Commerce Under Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere and former Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:"I was thrilled to learn that Tony was selected as the next president of UCAR. He is an exceptional talent, combining proven leadership skills with scientific excellence and management successes in a variety of relevant settings from university lecture halls to the halls of government." Dr. Margaret Leinen, Vice Chancellor for Marine Sciences, University of California San Diego; Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography:“Tony is an incredible scientist and community leader. He has demonstrated a unique ability to seamlessly traverse academic and governmental arenas to advance science. He comes to UCAR at a critical time, and I look forward to working with him to encourage closer collaboration among ocean, earth and atmospheric scientists." Robert S. Marshall, Founder & CEO, Earth Networks, Inc.:“For many years, Tony has been instrumental in facilitating and promoting the development of strong collaborative research and development activities among the academic and commercial weather sectors.  He is the right choice to lead UCAR into the future and we eagerly anticipate working with both he and the distinguished member institutions he represents to advance technology infusion into our nation’s economy through a vibrant and expanding public-private partnership.” Dr. Marcia McNutt, Editor-in-Chief, Science journals; President-elect, National Academy of Sciences:“Tony Busalacchi is an inspired choice to lead UCAR at this critical juncture. His distinguished career of service through committees of the National Academy of Sciences and long list of relevant publications in Science and top journals of the American Geophysical Union and the American Meteorological Society are testimony to his understanding of the issues at the interface of science and policy. He has a reputation for strategically building institutions and guiding programs. UCAR is fortunate to have leadership of his caliber at a time when strong science voices are needed to guide sound decisions that affect everyone on the planet.” Dr. Berrien Moore III, Dean, College of Atmospheric & Geographic Sciences, University of Oklahoma; Vice President, Weather & Climate Programs; Director, National Weather Center:“We are delighted by the selection of Professor Anthony Busalacchi to lead UCAR as the next president into the future. Tony has the scientific, intellectual, and encompassing vision and strength of person that are necessary to chart and execute the voyage, which will meet the challenges facing our society and our planet. Well Done!" Congressman Ed Perlmutter, Seventh District, Colorado:"I am pleased Dr. Busalacchi agreed to lead UCAR at such an important time for our weather enterprise.  Tony brings with him the experience necessary to capitalize on the best government, industry, and academia can offer to improve our scientific capabilities and understanding. I look forward to UCAR’s continued success under Tony’s leadership." Congressman Jared Polis, Second District, Colorado:“Congratulations to Dr. Busalacchi on his recent appointment to be President of UCAR. Not only are we excited to have such a bright leader at the helm of UCAR, but also look forward to the contribution he’ll make to our community.” Robert Ryan, Past President, American Meteorological Society:"My heartfelt congratulations to Tony as the next President of UCAR. He is the perfect person to lead UCAR at such a critical time for our atmospheric sciences and the importance of support for understanding science, critical funding for the sciences and science education. I know everyone and every segment of the atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological sciences will benefit under his leadership of UCAR." Dr. Christopher Scolese, Director, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center:"Tony is an inspirational leader and great scientist who will be a fantastic president of UCAR. All of us at Goddard look forward to working with Dr. Busalacchi in his new position and continuing our productive relationship with UCAR." Dr. Kathryn Sullivan, Under Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere; Administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration"Tony is an excellent choice to lead UCAR. He has deep understanding of the critical scientific issues of the day and he's an astute leader. Tony's awareness of the community dynamics and his excellent relationship with other leaders will serve UCAR and the broader environmental scientific community very effectively. I'm sure we will all benefit greatly from the insights, knowledge and perspectives he will bring." Rear Admiral (retired) David Titley, Professor of Meteorology, Pennsylvania State University; Founding Director, Center for Solutions to Weather and Climate Risk:“Dr. Busalacchi is an outstanding choice as the next UCAR President. His combination of strategic vision, superb academic credentials, and deep knowledge of how Washington works will serve the weather enterprise well in this dynamic time.  I look forward to working with Tony in his new position.” Dr. Louis Uccellini, Director, National Weather Service:"Tony Busalacchi has throughout his career covered the entire spectrum of Earth System Sciences and also has  worked tirelessly to engage the larger community in important reviews of the research and research to operations enterprise. The NWS is excited and looks forward to continuing our partnership with UCAR under Tony's leadership as we work to build a Weather Ready Nation." Rear Admiral Jonathan White, U.S. Navy Oceanographer and Navigator; Director, Space and Maritime Domain Awareness:“Given his diverse background and unparalleled expertise, I can’t imagine there is a better individual anywhere to take on this important leadership position.  To better understand and address the challenges that face our planet’s changing ocean, atmosphere, and climate, the scientific communities that represent these interrelated earth systems must closely collaborate in the days ahead. Tony is the perfect person to help lead that collaboration, and I look forward to working with him to that end.” Dr. John Zillman, former President of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and former President of the International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS):“Tony Busalacchi’s appointment as UCAR President is great news for international meteorology and for the  broader reaches of  Earth system science. As Chair of the WMO-IOC-ICSU World Climate Research Programme, he provided outstanding international leadership of climate research and, in my time with the Global Climate Observing System  and Global Framework for Climate Services, his energy, wisdom and commitment to collaboration made the international climate science scene a genuine  model  of international cooperation. I am sure that, under his presidency, UCAR will continue to provide outstanding international leadership in our field."  


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