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Comprehensive climate models are unanimous in predicting a warming when greenhouse gases are added. Although there is some disagreement about the magnitude of the response to the warming, there is much more disagreement about regional changes in weather and climate. Speaking a little loosely, one might say that thermodynamic changes seem to be much more robust than dynamical changes, and this can be ascribed to the nonlinearity of the equations of motion.
In this talk I will first discuss what the globally averaged temperature response that will actually result from increased greenhouse gases is likely to be based on empirical methods. I will then discuss what the response of the circulation might be, including changes in the height of the tropopause and shifts in the latitude of the main features of the circulation.
The seminar will be webcast and recorded for future viewing. The live URL for the webcast is http://www.fin.ucar.edu/it/mms/ml-live.htm The recording will be linked at the web site for the Thompson Lecture Series (link below)