North Atlantic weather and Arctic Amplification

Previous studies have suggested that Arctic Amplification has and will continue to cause North Atlantic planetary-scale waves to elongate meridionally and slow-down, resulting in more frequent blocking patterns and extreme weather events (e.g. Superstorm Sandy). Here, trends in the observations and trends in the CMIP5 model projections under RCP8.5 of North Atlantic atmospheric wave and jet-stream activity are analyzed and significant relationships with Arctic Amplification are found in the Autumn months, although not always in the direction one might expect. We also show that the CMIP5 models project that increasing greenhouse gases will decrease the frequency of occurrence of the atmospheric circulation patterns that propelled Sandy into the East Coast of the U.S., with the flow being more likely than at present to propel tropical storms into the Atlantic Ocean. 

About the presenter
Elizabeth Barnes

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Main Seminar Room

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Start date and time: 
Tuesday, September 10, 2013 - 3:30pm