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TITLE: On the interaction between interdecadal variability and anthropogenic climate change
ABSTRACT: There is continuing debate on the partitioning of natural and forced components of global climate change and some argue that the recent hiatus in global warming implies that observed climate change is dominated by natural climate variability and therefore it is at odds with anthropogenic global warming theory. Can internal variability really pause anthropogenic global warming (AGW)? In the talk I will show, based on sets of multi-centennial coupled CCSM3 simulations, that the internal interdecadal variability has little influence on the global-averaged surface warming, but it does cause the change in spatial pattern of AGW, which again is related to the change of modes of climate variability with external forcing. The possible mechanism and implications of the interaction between interdecadal variability and AGW will be discussed.