Can paleoclimate information improve climate projections?

Quantitative assessment of the ensembles from the Paleoclimate Model Inter-comparison Project against available data yields predominantly positive results for the LGM, suggesting that as well as the global mean change, the models can reproduce the observed pattern of change on the broadest scales, although the more detailed regional scale patterns of change remains elusive. The results for the mid-Holocene, which is a stiffer test of the models' performance, are substantially negative, further strengthening the finding for the LGM that regional scale climate changes are not well reproduced by the models. On coarse scales we find that the models have skill for the LGM, so we analyse the correlations between the spatial temperature and climate sensitivity in the model ensembles, and combining this with a recent reanalysis of the LGM temperature field, produce a new estimate for the constraint of the LGM on climate sensitivity.


Room Number: 
Main Seminar Room

Type of event:

Will this event be webcast to the public by NCAR|UCAR?: 
Calendar timing: 
Wednesday, May 22, 2013 - 4:00pm