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IMAGe GSP Brown Bag Seminar (Bring your lunch)
Johannes Werner (TU Darmstadt) and Susan Tolwinski-Ward (NCAR)
May 22 at 12:00
Location: ML Penthouse on tower B
During the last years, new and improved climate reconstructions of the pre-instrumental period have become available. They usually focus on one variable of interest only, regressing e.g. temperature on tree ring growth. However, most of the climate archives respond to more than one climate variable and limited tree growth could be caused by colder than normal temperatures as well as too dry conditions. We know from documentary data that in Central Europe the year 1540 was extremely hot, still it does not show up as an extreme year in the tree ring based reconstructions - likely because tree growth was limited by the drought beginning in 1539.
The aim of our project is to integrate both documentary evidence and tree ring data of 1540 into a joint reconstruction targeting moisture and temperature over the Western Alps, using suitable statistical descriptions: VS-Lite for the tree growth and a multinomial model for the documentary data. These models are then combined with a process level model over the instrumental period. The use of different climate archives and the extension to two variables of interest should improve future climate reconstructions.