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RAL Seminar Series 1:30 p.m. Tue 5 March 2013 FL2-1001
"Probabilistic Winter Weather Airport Capacity Model" Timothy Myers, Metron Aviation Abstract: The impact of winter weather conditions on airport capacity involves a complex relationship among several factors including precipitation rate and type, temperature, deicing capabilities, snow removal equipment, and airport procedures. This seminar introduces an airport capacity model which accounts for winter weather conditions. The model is based on statistical relationships observed among weather conditions, historical departure counts, and derived weather-related metrics across three consecutive winter seasons. A set of linear coefficients is defined specific to each airport for relating reported winter weather conditions with observed deviations in airport departure rates. These coefficients are applied to translate winter weather forecasts into airport capacity estimates accounting for empirical distributions in weather forecast uncertainty. Model predictions are compared against observed airport throughput during an actual winter weather event.