RAL Seminar Serices

1:30pm

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

FL2 - 1001

Probabilistic Winter Weather Airport Capacity Model

Timothy Myers - Metron Aviation

The impact of winter weather conditions on airport capacity involves a
complex relationship among several factors including precipitation rate
and type, temperature, deicing capabilities, snow removal equipment, and
airport procedures. This seminar introduces an airport capacity model
which accounts for winter weather conditions. The model is based on
statistical relationships observed among weather conditions, historical
departure counts, and derived weather-related metrics across three
consecutive winter seasons. A set of linear coefficients is defined
specific to each airport for relating reported winter weather conditions
with observed deviations in airport departure rates. These coefficients
are applied to translate winter weather forecasts into airport capacity
estimates accounting for empirical distributions in weather forecast
uncertainty. Model predictions are compared against observed airport
throughput during an actual winter weather event.