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Sigma Xi Lecture by Morris Weisman, NCAR/MMM
"Advances in Forecasting Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, and Derechos”
12:15 PM Tuesday, February 5, 2013, Main Seminar Room, Mesa Laboratory
Convective storms (thunderstorms) represent one of the most frequently occurring severe weather events worldwide, producing dangerous lightning, heavy (flooding) rainfall, damaging winds, and sometimes damaging hail and tornadoes on a day-to- day basis. Over the past two decades, many advances have been made in both understanding and forecasting such storms, largely due to the development of new research and forecast computer models capable of representing the key physical processes critical to such phenomena. In this talk, I will review what we have learned about the storms and storm systems responsible for such severe weather, including supercells and derechos (a large, long-lived convectively produced windstorm), and also review the progress and challenges associated with forecasting these events with numerical models, sometimes now successfully days in advance.