Staff Notes Daily Announcements

Super Science Saturday is open to the public and welcomes science explorers of all ages!

Please join us for Super Science Saturday on November 5, 2016 from 10 am - 4 pm. This annual event at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) brings kids and adults together to explore hands-on activities, think about new ideas, and learn about science. This year's theme is Our Changing Climate!

Activities and Events:

  • Hands-on activity tables
  • Science Shows
  • NCAR 3D Visualization Lab Demos
  • NCAR Wizards Showcase
Detailed schedule of events is coming soon.

Posted by Natalie Ponsford at ext. 2585,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Sunday, November 6, 2016

Which predictability estimates are most realistic?

Kathleen Pegion, George Mason University

 Predictability represents the upper limit of prediction skill if we had an infinite member ensemble and a perfect model. It is an intrinsic limit of the climate system associated with the chaotic nature of the atmosphere. Producing a forecast system that can make predictions very near to this limit is the ultimate goal of forecast system development. Estimates of predictability together with calculations of current prediction skill are often used to define the gaps in our prediction capabilities on subseasonal to seasonal timescales and to inform the scientific issues that must be addressed to build the next forecast system. Quantification of the predictability is also important for providing a scientific basis for relaying to stakeholders what kind of climate information can be provided to inform decision-making and what kind of information is not possible given the intrinsic predictability of the climate system.

  One challenge with predictability estimates is that different prediction systems can give different estimates of the upper limit of skill. How do we know which estimate of predictability is most representative of the true predictability of the climate system?Previous studies have used the spread-error relationship and the autocorrelation to evaluate the fidelity of the signal and noise estimates. Using a multi-model ensemble prediction system, we can quantify whether these metrics accurately indicate an individual model's ability to properly estimate the signal, noise, and predictability. We use this information to identify the best estimates of predictability for 2-meter temperature, precipitation, and sea surface temperature from the North American Multi-model Ensemble and compare with current skill to indicate the regions with potential for improving skill.

Nov. 1, 2016, 11 a.m. - Noon
Mesa Lab, Main Seminar Room

Posted by Gaylynn Potemkin at ext. 1618,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Wednesday, November 2, 2016
On Wednesday, November 2nd, 2016, a panel of researchers (including two Climate Voices speakers) will discuss the use of proxies in climate research and also provide insightful strategies for communicating science to the general public. Our panel consists of Dr. Jonathan Overpeck, Dr. Julie Cole, and Dr. Kim Cobb; all of whom will share about his or her particular expertise within the field.  We're excited to share this one-of-a-kind webinar with you all and hope to see you there! 
Webinar registration is available via link: Tune in at 1PM MDT.  

Posted by Sara Herrin at ext. 2630,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Wednesday, November 2, 2016

News clips at a glance: Oct. 14 – 21

Total: ~65 

Summary: NCAR scientist Deb PaiMazumder (MMM) was interviewed by Channel 9 in Denver about a study he led on better prediction of “flash droughts.” Our news release on this research was co-issued by NSF, and covered by a number of broadcast, print, and online media outlets. A new WRF-Hydro visualization did well in social media, helping to promote the story for a second week.

Notable Clips:

Flash Drought Prediction, Deb PaiMazumder (MMM)
Scientists in Colorado Work on Predicting Flash Droughts
(Channel 9 in Denver)

Study Eyes Flash Drought Forecasts
(Summit County Citizen Voice)

Extreme Weather Prediction, NCAR
Why Isn't the U.S. Better at Predicting Extreme Weather
(New York Times Magazine, briefly referred to NCAR)

Fall foliage, Danica Lombardozzi (CGD)
Rocky Mountains in the Fall: See a 360-Degree Video View
(This Lombardozzi-narrated piece produced by Denver7 also ran on a number of other TV station websites including in Arizona, California, Michigan, Ohio and Wisconsin.)

Tornado research, NCAR's Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF)
Sand Mountain Magic: Why Does Sand Mountain Have So Many Tornadoes?
(WHNT-TV, Huntsville, Alabama, story about the VORTEX Southeast field campaign) 

Social Media Highlights:

WRF-Hydro (RAL)
A tweet about WRF-Hydro that included a visualization of precipitation surging through U.S. waterways was shared 127 times and reached 20,600 people.

Flash droughts (MMM)
The National Science Foundation tweeted about our new study on the predictability of flash droughts to its 879,000 followers. It was retweeted 20 times. 

Posted by Jeff Smith at ext. 2679,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Friday, October 28, 2016

Posted by Annette Lampert at ext. 8719,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Friday, November 4, 2016
Join us on Friday, November 4th, 2016 at 11AM MDT for a talk by University of Maryland researcher, Dr. Eugenia Kalnay, about the complex relationship between human population and climate change.  Dr. Kalnay will explain her research team's innovative Human and Nature Dynamical Model (HANDY) as a means of contextualizing a sustainable human society. 
The talk will be presented at UCAR in the FL2-1022 auditorium.  Please visit (UCARLive) and select Room 2: FL2-1022 to watch the entire talk via live-stream. 

Posted by Sara Herrin at ext. 2630,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Friday, November 4, 2016

The Annual Holiday Market is coming!

Date: Friday, 11/11/16

Time: 10:00 AM - 2:00 PM

Location: CG1 - North, Center, and South Auditoriums

Start your holiday shopping early! There will be 30 vendors with a variety of items to select from.

Come One ~ Come All and enjoy this festive event!

Questions: Contact Toni Wallace,

Posted by Toni Wallace at ext. 8716,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Saturday, November 12, 2016

The HR team has a surprise theme for Halloween and we welcome all to join us for some fun!

Stop by and visit us on Monday, 10/31 for a Halloween treat!

FLA Building - 3rd Floor, come by between 9am-4pm

We're looking forward to seeing you!


Posted by Toni Wallace at ext. 8716,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Tuesday, November 1, 2016

Each year, UCAR is required to notify all employee participants of the status of the benefit plans. Each of the annual reports has been filed with the Internal Revenue Service as required under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA). The Summary Annual Report for the UCAR Retirement Plan is now available for review.

Posted by Laurie Carr at ext. 8702,

Monday, October 24, 2016 to Friday, October 28, 2016

To provide a boost to women working in information technology, UCAR is helping to bring together a team of women who will help build and operate a high-capacity network at a major supercomputing conference. (Story by David Hosansky, Manager of Media Relations. Read more here.)

Posted by David Hosansky at ext. 8611,

Friday, October 21, 2016 to Wednesday, October 26, 2016