NCAR Director's Office

NCAR Day of Networking & Discovery

All NCAR and UCAR staff are invted to attend a full day of discovery, sharing, and networking! 

Please RSVP on the Webpage link below. 

Wrangling observations into models

April 4, 2016 | If scientists could directly measure the properties of all the water throughout the world’s oceans, they wouldn’t need help from NCAR scientist Alicia Karspeck. But since large expanses of the oceans are beyond the reach of observing instruments, Karspeck’s work is critical for those who want estimates of temperature, salinity, and other properties of water around the globe. Scientists need these estimates to better understand the world’s climate system and how it is changing. “It’s painstaking work, but my hope is it will lead to major advances in climate modeling and long-term prediction,” Karspeck said. She is one of a dozen or so researchers at NCAR who spend their days on data assimilation, a field that is becoming increasingly important for the geosciences and other areas of research. Broadly speaking, data assimilation is any method of enabling computer models to utilize relevant observations. Part science and part art, it involves figuring out how to get available measurements--which may be sparse, tightly clustered, or irregularly scattered--into models that tend to simplify the world by breaking it into gridded boxes. Commonly used in weather forecasting, the technique can improve simulations and help scientists predict future events with more confidence. It can also identify deficiencies in both models and observations. As models have become more powerful and observations more numerous, the technique has become so critical that NCAR last year launched a Data Assimilation Program to better leverage expertise across its seven labs. “Activities in data assimilation have grown well beyond traditional applications in numerical weather prediction for the atmosphere and now span across NCAR’s laboratories,” said NCAR Director Jim Hurrell. “The Data Assimilation program is designed to enhance data assimilation research at NCAR, while at the same time serving the broader U.S. research community.” Scientists are using data assimilation techniques to input a range of North American observations into experimental, high-resolution U.S. forecasts. These real-time ensemble forecasts are publicly available while they're being tested. (@UCAR. This image is freely available for media & nonprofit use.) Improving prediction Created by the NCAR Directorate, the Data Assimilation Program is designed to advance prediction of events ranging from severe weather and floods to air pollution outbreaks and peaks in the solar cycle. One of its goals is to encourage collaborations among data assimilation experts at NCAR and the larger research community. For example, scientists in several labs are joining forces to apply data assimilation methods to satellite measurements to create a database of global winds and other atmospheric properties. This database will then be used for a broad range of climate and weather studies. The program also provides funding to hire postdocs at NCAR to focus on data assimilation projects as well as for a software engineer to support such activities. NCAR Senior Scientist Chris Snyder coordinates the Data Assimilation Program. "By bringing money to the table, we’re building up data assimilation capability across NCAR,” said NCAR Senior Scientist Chris Snyder, who coordinates the Data Assimilation Program. “This is critical because data assimilation provides a framework to scientists throughout the atmospheric and related sciences who need to assess where the uncertainties are and how a given observation can help.” NCAR Senior Scientist Jeff Anderson, who oversees the Data Assimilation Research Testbed (DART), says that data assimilation has become central for the geosciences. DART is a software environment that helps researchers develop data assimilation methods and observations with various computer models. “I think the Data Assimilation Program is a huge win for NCAR and the entire atmospheric sciences community,” Anderson said. “The scientific method is about taking observations of the world and making sense of them, and data assimilation is fundamental for applying the scientific method to the geosciences as well as to other research areas.” From oceans to Sun Here are examples of how data assimilation is advancing our understanding of atmospheric and related processes from ocean depths to the Sun’s interior: Oceans. Karspeck is using data assimilation to estimate water properties and currents throughout the world's oceans. This is a computationally demanding task that requires feeding observations into the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model, simulating several days of ocean conditions on the Yellowstone supercomputer, and using those results to update the conditions in the model and run another simulation. The good news: the resulting simulations match well with historical records, indicating that the data assimilation approach is working. “My goal is to turn this into a viable system for researchers,” Karspeck said. Air quality. Atmospheric chemists at NCAR are using data assimilation of satellite observations to improve air quality models that currently draw on limited surface observations of pollutants. For example, assimilating satellite observations would show the effect of emissions from a wildfire in Montana on downwind air quality, such as in Chicago.  “We've done a lot of work to speed up the processing time and the results are promising," said NCAR scientist Helen Worden. “The model simulations after assimilating satellite carbon monoxide data are much closer to actual air quality conditions.” Weather forecasting. Data assimilation is helping scientists diagnose problems with weather models. For example, why do models consistently overpredict or underpredict temperatures near the surface? Using data assimilation, NCAR scientist Josh Hacker discovered that models incorrectly simulate the transfer of heat from the ground into the atmosphere. “With data assimilation, you’re repeatedly confronting the model with observations so you can very quickly see how things go wrong,” he said. Solar cycle. Scientists believe the 11-year solar cycle is driven by mysterious processes deep below the Sun’s surface, such as the movements of cells of plasma between the Sun’s lower latitudes and poles. To understand the causes of the cycle and ultimately predict it, they are turning to data assimilation to augment observations of magnetic fields and plasma flow at the Sun’s surface and feed the resulting information into a computer model of subsurface processes. “We are matching surface conditions to the model, such as the pattern and speed of the plasma flows and evolving magnetic fields,” said NCAR scientist Mausumi Dikpati. Capturing data. In addition to helping scientists improve models, the new Data Assimilation Program is also fostering discussions about observations. NCAR senior scientist Wen-Chau Lee and colleagues who are experts in gathering observations are conferring with computer modelers over how to process the data for the models to readily ingest. One challenge, for example, is that radars may take observations every 150 meters whereas the models often have a resolution of 1-3 kilometers. Inputting the radar observations into the models requires advanced quality control techniques, including coordinate transformation (modifying coordinates from observations to the models) and data thinning (reducing the density of observations while retaining the basic information). “We are modifying our quality control procedures to make sure that the flow of data is smooth.” Lee said. “With data assimilation, the first word is ‘data’,” he added. “Without data, without observations, there is no assimilation.” Writer/contactDavid Hosansky, Manager of Media Relations FundersNCAR Directorate National Science FoundationAdditional funding agencies for specific projects  

NCAR Brown Bag Series- Gender and Academia

Nick Hamblin is a transgender diversity educator who transitioned while studying at the Colorado School of Mines. Nick will elaborate on the experience of gendered expectations and attitudes within academia informed by his own story of transition.

Rising Voices melds indigenous, western science perspectives

March 24, 2016 | Indigenous people around the world are often among the first to experience the consequences of extreme weather and climate change. The effects on their lives and livelihoods of sea level rise, changes in farming and fishing seasons, and other environmental impacts often are dramatic. Yet their perspectives are rarely considered in public policy discussions. In many tribal communities, climate change exacerbates a situation already marked by economic hardship, resource loss, and discrimination. Now in its fourth year, a program hosted by NCAR called Rising Voices brings social and physical scientists and engineers together with Native American community members to build bonds that lead to collaboration on research proposals and projects. The premise is that indigenous peoples experience and understand the changes occurring in their communities, while scientists can provide insight on the underlying causes and how those changes might be managed. "We need to appreciate the experience and knowledge that has been transferred from generation to generation to generation in Native American communities," said Bob Gough, a founding member of Rising Voices, an attorney, and a descendant of the Leni Lenape tribe of Delaware. Rising Voices co-founder Bob Gough (far right), speaks at a Rising Voices workshop in Boulder. An attorney and descendant of the Leni Lenape tribe of Delaware, Gough has been involved in Native American and climate change issues for decades. (Photo by Craig Elevitch.) For NCAR Director Jim Hurrell, indigenous knowledge systems are critical to understanding the current and future impacts of climate variability and change, and "they are especially central to discussions around adaptation strategies. Rising Voices has been tremendously successful in bringing the indigenous and scientific communities together on these issues, and the collaborative efforts that are emerging are going to pay tremendous dividends." Many of the indigenous communities involved in Rising Voices are already contending with significant impacts. In January, the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development announced it would fund a proposal to resettle the Isle de Jean Charles Band of the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw tribe, a Louisiana Bayou community that has lost virtually all its land due to rising sea levels and to erosion caused by extreme weather as well as human activities such as oil and gas development. This is believed to be the first resettlement in the United States related to climate change. Rising Voices co-founder and NCAR scientist Heather Lazrus. (Photo by Kat Barr.) A Native American village in Kivalina, Alaska, is expected to soon face a similar fate, while many tribes in the Southwest are struggling with severe drought and scarce water. Members of both the Isle de Jean Charles and Kivalina tribes participate in Rising Voices. Bull Bennett, an ecologist, Mi'kmaq tribal member in North Dakota, and Rising Voices participant gave a vivid example of just one problem facing cold-climate communities during a video interview last summer for a new climate exhibit at NCAR's Mesa Lab. "Imagine you carve out your cellar in the permafrost and that's how you store your meat in the lean times," Bennett said. "And now imagine the permafrost thaws and your basement is full of water and the structure isn't supported and it falls in. That's what communities in Alaska are dealing with in the interior, with profound permafrost thaw. And it's only going to get worse." UN panel urges scientists to tap indigenous knowledge Rising Voices comes at a time of increasing recognition of the role indigenous people play worldwide in climate issues. In 2014, the United Nation's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change highlighted how indigenous knowledge and practice, including the "holistic view of community and environment, are a major resource for adapting to climate change." Building bonds, respecting cultural protocols Eileen Shea, former director of climate services at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and a participant in Rising Voices since the beginning, said establishing common ground through cultural ceremonies is a critical element of building trust between indigenous people and scientists. She still remembers a NOAA workshop she helped coordinate in Hawaii in 1998 that opened with a hula chant and dance. Far from being a tourist gimmick, the chants, when translated into English, described how the winds would periodically change direction and bring warmer water near the shoreline, negatively affecting fishing. "You could hear scientists in the back say, That must have been an El Niño," Shea recalled. When another chant talked about changes over a longer period that affected plants, water resources, and fish, "you could hear scientists in the back say, They are talking about the PDO.” The Pacific Decadal Oscillation is a recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability over the mid-latitudes of the Pacific Ocean. Such protocols help to build mutual respect and trust, Shea said. "It puts everyone on a level playing field." In the case of Rising Voices, "over the years people have felt more comfortable sharing their stories of the weather and storms and ice breaks," Shea said. And, as indigenous people recount how their seasonal weather, along with their hunting and fishing calendars, have changed over the years, "you begin to see some alignment with Western science and history." The Rising Voices program grew out of a hallway coffee conversation three years ago between Gough and Heather Lazrus, an NCAR environmental anthropologist. At the time, Gough was involved in a project to improve wind-energy predictions and map Indian reservations for potential renewable energy projects. Initially intended as a one-time workshop, Rising Voices received additional funding for subsequent workshops which have been organized by Lazrus, Gough, and Julie Maldonado of the Livelihoods Knowledge Exchange Network. The NCAR Director's Office is the primary funder. Rising Voices has grown from 45 participants at the first workshop to more than 110 at the third annual workshop last July. (NCAR hosted a similar meeting in 2008). Gough, who grew up clamming and fishing on former tribal homelands on the New Jersey Coast, has been involved in tribal climate and energy issues for several decades. He said that while there are academic efforts to include indigenous people, Rising Voices fills a niche as a community-oriented group that connects tribes to each other and to scientists. Participants have also come from the U.S. National Climate Assessment and the Department of Interior's Climate Science Centers. In a survey of last summer's workshop participants, nearly two-thirds of respondents said they came away with a stronger appreciation of cultural protocols and knowledge required for partnerships in key areas, including water, relocation, climate cycles, and health and livelihood hazards. More than three-quarters said the workshop supported collaborative scientific-indigenous partnerships "extremely well" or "a lot." Lazrus said the ultimate goal is for indigenous perspectives to inform science. For example, Rising Voices is a formal partner in NCAR's Engineering for Climate Extremes Partnership, which is developing tools that help communities adapt and build resilience to extreme weather events. But while outcomes are important, the primary benefits of Rising Voices right now are to encourage connections and collaboration, and to support indigenous science students and early-career scientists. "In those respects," Lazrus said, "Rising Voices is succeeding."   Writer/contactJeff Smith, Science Writer and Public Information Officer FundersNCAR DirectorateNorth Central Climate Science Center Colorado State University CollaboratorsIntertribal Council on Utility Policy Kiksapa Consulting LLCIndigenous People's Climate Change Working Group

OutBoulder - Trans101 Talk

Please join us at our NCAR Diversity Brown Bag Series on Transgender Issues titled "Trans 101"

NCAR DIVERSITY BROWN BAG SERIES on Intercultural Communication

Please join us at our NCAR Diversity Brown Bag Series in Intercultural Communication! 

Cultural differences shape how we see the world, communicate and relate to one another in very different ways. Come learn how to improve relations with colleagues across cultures!

We're excited to present Lee Shanis of Intercambio, an expert at uniting communities!

This Tuesday, 1.26.16, at the CG1 North Auditorium

12:00—1:00 PM

NCAR Explorer Series: What's going on with El Niño?

We are kicking off the new NCAR Explorer Series with a free public talk by  Kevin Trenberth on El Niño. The public is invited to the Mesa Lab on January 20 at 6:00 pm to learn more about what El Niño is and what it means for weather in Colorado and the rest of country. 


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