Scientists have found that internal variability can make one season twice as active as another, even when large-scale hurricane-shaping elements are unchanged. The research suggests that seasonal hurricane forecasts could be improved by conveying the amount of unavoidable uncertainty in the outlook.
More than 1,000 forecasters, researchers, and other professionals from around the globe will convene in Montréal on August 16–21 for a first-of-a-kind meeting aimed at pooling international thought on where weather prediction is headed. NCAR and UCAR participants are on tap to cover a wide range of promising developments.
A field project this June and July will study gravity waves, towering atmospheric features little-known to the public. Novel instruments to be deployed for the international DEEPWAVE project, based in New Zealand, will provide an unprecedented view of gravity waves, a major shaper of atmospheric variability at multiple heights.
It takes a sharp eye to find something positive in the wreckage of the worst swarm of U.S. tornadoes on record: the 1974 Jumbo Outbreak. Millions of Americans are safer in the air because of Fujita's subsequent analysis of microbursts and tools developed by NCAR and collaborators.
Why seasonal forecasting can’t tell us with certainty what to expect this summer—and why we might soon have a stronger sense of what late 2014 and early 2015 are likely to bring to large parts of the globe.
How does the U.S. winter of 2013–14 rank against its predecessors? And was it a harbinger of more cold winters to come for parts of the country, or simply an outlier at a time of largely warming winters?
If the official weather forecast holds, Sunday's Super Bowl won’t have to be postponed. But the outlook would be far more uncertain if predictions today were as primitive as they were at the time of the first Super Bowl in 1967.
Next month’s Super Bowl will be the first ever held in an open stadium in the northern U.S. What weather might we expect two weeks from now, and how might research improve a forecast in that time range?
Just as forecasters now peg the odds of a busy Atlantic hurricane season months in advance, we might soon have outlooks that assess the risk of an active tornado season weeks or even months ahead of time.
The last month has seen a trail of smashed records across the central United States, as pulse after pulse of cold air careened down the Great Plains. How does this fit into the bigger picture of a warming U.S. climate?
A major winter storm is threatening the Washington, D.C., area this week, on the heels of record-setting snowfalls and blizzard conditions in several parts of the United States last month. Are these onslaughts catching people off guard?
They’ve been carried by truck into supercell thunderstorms, flown on aircraft into hurricanes, and sliced and diced the atmosphere in myriad ways. Where are research radars headed next, and where will they take science and society?
As a step toward meeting the goal of providing earlier warnings, NCAR scientists and their colleagues are examining what enables poorly organized clusters of thunderstorms to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes.
Satellite images have revealed at least three dramatic eye-like features not far off the U.S. Atlantic and Pacific coasts over the last several weeks. While these can look startlingly like the eyes of hurricanes, they’re not quite the same thing.
New research points to gravity waves, which ripple unseen through the atmosphere, as the culprit in many cases of clear-air turbulence. If those waves can be forecast, the research suggests that planes in many cases could be rerouted around them.
More than two days ahead of landfall, it was clear that Hurricane Sandy could bring higher water than New York and New Jersey had seen in decades. But for thousands of people in the area, the threat simply didn’t register. (Part 1 of 2)