Experts from Asia and North America met at NCAR on September 15–18 to discuss promising avenues of research that could lead to improvements in predicting hurricanes, floods, and other phenomena affecting billions of people.
Almost a year after Colorado’s deadly and destructive floods of September 2013, a group of NCAR scientists has just completed testing an innovative new system for detecting and predicting torrential rainfall as well as the risk of local flooding.
Scientists have found that internal variability can make one season twice as active as another, even when large-scale hurricane-shaping elements are unchanged. The research suggests that seasonal hurricane forecasts could be improved by conveying the amount of unavoidable uncertainty in the outlook.
More than 1,000 forecasters, researchers, and other professionals from around the globe will convene in Montréal on August 16–21 for a first-of-a-kind meeting aimed at pooling international thought on where weather prediction is headed. NCAR and UCAR participants are on tap to cover a wide range of promising developments.
A field project this June and July will study gravity waves, towering atmospheric features little-known to the public. Novel instruments to be deployed for the international DEEPWAVE project, based in New Zealand, will provide an unprecedented view of gravity waves, a major shaper of atmospheric variability at multiple heights.
It takes a sharp eye to find something positive in the wreckage of the worst swarm of U.S. tornadoes on record: the 1974 Jumbo Outbreak. Millions of Americans are safer in the air because of Fujita's subsequent analysis of microbursts and tools developed by NCAR and collaborators.
Why seasonal forecasting can’t tell us with certainty what to expect this summer—and why we might soon have a stronger sense of what late 2014 and early 2015 are likely to bring to large parts of the globe.
How does the U.S. winter of 2013–14 rank against its predecessors? And was it a harbinger of more cold winters to come for parts of the country, or simply an outlier at a time of largely warming winters?
If the official weather forecast holds, Sunday's Super Bowl won’t have to be postponed. But the outlook would be far more uncertain if predictions today were as primitive as they were at the time of the first Super Bowl in 1967.
Next month’s Super Bowl will be the first ever held in an open stadium in the northern U.S. What weather might we expect two weeks from now, and how might research improve a forecast in that time range?
Just as forecasters now peg the odds of a busy Atlantic hurricane season months in advance, we might soon have outlooks that assess the risk of an active tornado season weeks or even months ahead of time.