Concentrations of 0.0005 and Higher - June 18, 2010 - Google Earth version
This animation, displayed using Google Earth software, provides sharpened contrast between comparatively clear ocean and areas of higher dye concentration by eliminating dye concentrations below 0.0005 (a dilution of 2,000 times relative to the source). As a result, the area covered in beige (most diluted) is reduced compared to the animations released on June 3, 2010 (see below), with some of the lowest concentrations becoming transparent.

The animation shows one scenario of how oil released in the upper 65 feet of the ocean at the location of the Deepwater Horizon disaster on April 20 in the Gulf of Mexico could move. This is not a forecast, but rather, it illustrates a likely dispersal pathway of the oil for roughly four months following the spill. It assumes oil spilling continuously from April 20 to June 20. The colors represent a dilution factor ranging from red (most concentrated) to beige (most diluted).

The simulations do not make any assumptions about the daily rate or total amount of oil spilled and the dilution factor does not attempt to estimate the actual barrels of oil at any spot. Instead, one unit per day of a liquid "dye tracer" is injected in the model at the spill site (injected continuously over the period April 20 through June 20). The animation shows possible scenarios of what might happen to dye released in the upper 65 feet of ocean at the spill site. The dilution factor depicts how dye released at the site of the spill will be progressively diluted as it is transported and mixed by ocean currents. For example, areas showing a dilution factor of 0.01 would have one-hundredth the concentration of oil present at the spill site.

The animation is based on a computer model simulation, using a virtual dye, that assumes weather and current conditions similar to those that occur in a typical year. It is one of a set of six scenarios (view these below) that simulate possible pathways the oil might take under a variety of oceanic conditions. Each of the six scenarios shows the same overall movement of oil through the Gulf to the Atlantic and up the East Coast. However, the timing and fine-scale details differ, depending on the details of the ocean currents in the Gulf. (Visualization by Michael Burek, Tim Scheitlin, and Mary Haley, NCAR; based on model simulations.)  [Download high-resolution video]

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