For millions of people, El Niño or La Niña indicates whether they’re likely to face unusually warm, cold, wet, or dry conditions over the coming winter. A new modeling study pins down the process that apparently determines why La Niña events often last twice as long as typical El Niño events—a result with major implications for seasonal predictions.
A leading goal of solar scientists is to improve predictions of the Sun's approximately 11-year cycle. New research led by scientists from NCAR and Sweden shows how solar predictions can borrow from weather forecasting techniques in order to predict the timing and extent of the solar cycle.
Scientists have found that internal variability can make one season twice as active as another, even when large-scale hurricane-shaping elements are unchanged. The research suggests that seasonal hurricane forecasts could be improved by conveying the amount of unavoidable uncertainty in the outlook.
California will likely experience more large fires in forested areas this century because of rising temperatures and changes in precipitation along with development patterns, new research finds. The blazes could increase some types of fire-generated air pollution by more than half.
Geophysical Research Letters, a leading journal in Earth science, is toasting its 40th anniversary this month with an editor-picked retrospective collection of 40 papers, including several with authors from NCAR.
Climate change will reduce water availability during dry seasons and increase it during wet seasons around the globe, new research suggests. It also finds there will be large regional variations in water-related impacts.
Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are fluctuating more than they used to from one season to another, according to observations from the HIPPO field project. This may be a sign of significant changes in northern ecosystems.
Drier ski slopes, reduced river flows, and increased wildfires can potentially discourage tourists from coming to Colorado. Should local officials and business leaders do more to plan for these impacts?
NCAR has made key upgrades to its Helicopter Emergency Medical Services tool, which helps helicopter rescue pilots decide quickly whether weather conditions are safe enough to attempt a low-altitude flight.
A new study by an NCAR researcher shows that small- to moderate-size volcanoes have helped slow down warming over the last decade, while industrial emissions of Sun-blocking sulfur dioxide over Asia have contributed relatively little to the slowdown.
Broadcast meteorologists are a leading source of information about the atmosphere for the public, but many avoid mentioning global warming. New research finds barriers that may keep them from addressing the science of climate change on the air.
As a step toward meeting the goal of providing earlier warnings, NCAR scientists and their colleagues are examining what enables poorly organized clusters of thunderstorms to develop into tropical storms and hurricanes.
A team of researchers, including NCAR scientist Carl Schmitt, are climbing high in the Peruvian Andes to assess the extent to which the white ice is being darkened by ash and other particulates that are emitted by nearby industrial operations. The dark particles can accelerate glacial melting, eventually threatening runoff that supplies water for millions of South American residents.
New research points to gravity waves, which ripple unseen through the atmosphere, as the culprit in many cases of clear-air turbulence. If those waves can be forecast, the research suggests that planes in many cases could be rerouted around them.